Trumps Second Term: Worst Case Scenario

I have always been a bit of pessimist. It is more of defense mechanism than anything. If I assume the worst is going to happen, when it doesn't, it feels like good news. When I was younger, during the Cold War, I'd wake up each day expecting Armageddon was coming. I'd put the radio on to catch the news, when the missiles weren't on their way, whatever I heard was happening in the world, yay, good news. We weren't all going to die today. 

When Trump was elected in 2016, this served me well. While others were shocked, stunned, and/or pissed off, I was thinking, "I knew it." In 2024, I do what I can to prevent him from being elected, but if it does happen, I will be prepared, emotionally anyway. What will his second term look like, I assume the worst of course. 

In 1934 Germany, an event took place, under Chancellor Adolph Hitler, often referred to as the Night of the Long Knives. I apologize for bringing up Hitler, but it is difficult not to when Trump is using words like "vermin" when he refers to Americans that disagree with him and is threatening retribution. For a three day period, Hitler's thugs (aka "brown shirts") went on a killing spree, executing Hitler's political opponents. The official number of victims is eighty but some say it was as high as a thousand. The real number was lost in the fog of war that was soon to come. It is something like this, that I see as a worst case scenario. Trump's "brown shirts", either under his direction or not, go after his political opponents. Not just other politicians, like Harris, Biden and Pelosi etc., but judges, lawyers, journalists, maybe even bloggers. He'll claim he had nothing to do with it and he'll get away with it. 

Trump's language at his rallies suggest that I am not too far off. He said some really disgusting things about fellow Americans, about me and probably you as well, and his crowd of supporters cheer him on. Some have even elevated him to a religious icon. What saved us from his first presidency is his administration's incompetence. Their total lack of direction was their ball and chain. This time around he already has more direction with Project 2025 backing him up. He also had a lot of traditional conservatives around him preventing him from going completely off the rails. His second administration, according to him, is going to have no such people in it. He has talked about a loyalty oath and firing anyone that won't sign it. 

Hopefully, I am wrong about all of this. Kamala Harris seems like a decent and capable person. Since, I'd vote for anyone running against Trump, she definitely has my vote regardless. 

My Grieving for American Democracy

American democracy is dying. It has been dying for quite some time, a long slow painful death. After this past week, one could pronounce it dead. Dead on arrival the moment Biden first talked at the presidential debate last week and showed us all how badly he had declined, intro to Diminished Joe. DOA at the moment that Trump told his first lie, first of many. If that didn't convince you, then certainly when the Supreme Court decided that the president couldn't be prosecuted for anything he/she did that was broadly related to their job ... certainly that killed democracy for you.

The first stage of grief is denial and you could say that is exactly where I was for the past decade or so until Thursday night when I laid down into bed to watch the debate. My wife already started it without me and within a couple of minutes I said "We are fucked" and she said "yup." This is when denial turned into anger, stage two of grief. I am angry that these are the two candidates we have to choose from. We are stuck with them: Biden, who looked like he was going to die on stage and couldn't put a coherent sentence together, and the unhinged Trump, the worst person in America ... a convicted felon, racist, sexual predator, a pathological liar and someone we already know was a truly awful president. 

I know what some of you are thinking, "but Mark, we have more than two choices. There are third party candidates." I have already considered this. The most popular and viable third party candidate, Robert Kennedy Jr., is just as bad of a choice as these two guys. Kennedy is a paranoid nut. If both my father and uncle were victims of public assassinations, I would probably be paranoid as well. He may be younger than our two octogenarians but his health is no better. He is just a notch better than Trump. 

I was on the Biden bandwagon until the debate. Joe has been an excellent president, one of the best in my lifetime. Originally, in 2020, I voted for Joe because I was voting against Trump not for Biden. As his administration progressed, I noticed a lot of good things happening: green spending, Judge Brown, childhood hunger going down, infrastructure spending, student loan debt loopholes sealed, bi-partisan deal on the border (that Trump killed) and elegantly walking a fine line in two foreign wars. His many years in the Senate has really paid off, but is he up to the job. I would like to point out that I still take Biden on his worst day over Trump on his best. The debate performance may have been Biden on his worst day, but for all we know, he has had a lot of these and his staff is just hiding it from us.

The most frustrating part of this is that both party have good and, some, young alternatives. Why are we stuck with these guys? The Democratic party has had plenty of opportunity to address this. Back in February, 2024, special counsel Robert Hur referred to Biden as "an  elderly man with a poor memory." Hur is not a political hack. He spent several days with the president. Why didn't they see this as a red flag? We have some great candidates that all poll well against Trump: VP Harris, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (MI), Gov. Gavin Newsom (CA) and Sec. Pete Buttigeig are all excellent candidates. We still have time before the convention to resolve this. Even the Republicans have some reasonable candidates. Both Mitt Romney and William Weld are still alive (my northeast bias is showing here). 

The next president will probably have two Supreme Court nominations. This is it folks. If you don't like what the Supreme Court is doing, we can't have another Trump presidency. Before I go into the next stages of grief: bargaining, depression and acceptance, lets try the defib pads one more time and see if we can resuscitate this Democracy ... unless you think Emperor Trump is good idea. 

Courier Journal - Spring 2024

It is amazing what a different city Burlington is when the warm weather comes. I attribute this to three factors:

• Once the colleges let out, about half the city's population leaves. So driving around the University and Champlain College is a lot easier. The busyness shifts to other parts of the city once they leave. This is a great relief for someone like me that always fears driving among the texting youth that seem oblivious of their surroundings. For about a week, moving vans clutter the streets. Then peace ensues, but other treachery awaits.
• Burlington is a beautiful city, vibrant and exciting. It sits on Lake Champlain with the Adirondacks to the west and the Greens to the east. Every weekend it seems we have a new festival.  Jazz Fest last weekend. Food fests, Reggae fests, Brewfests, etc. This means we have a ton of tourists, particularly from Boston, New York and Montreal. These aren't cities known for their good drivers. This brings a whole new dynamic to driving. 
• Because we are a cold weather climate, most of our road construction takes place in the few warm weather months. This makes Burlington a nightmare to drive in. It seems like there is construction every other street.  For these months, Vermont's state flag should be changed to have an orange cone on it.

I have always been frustrated with people. To put it bluntly I am not a "people person." Driving in the city during tourist season has not interacted positively with this part of my nature. Here is a short list of how people annoy me: 

• Don't park in loading zones. I've confronted several people parked in loading zones. The response I get is that "it is okay, I'm just going in the bank" etc. No, it is not okay. Loading zones are for commercial vehicles, loading and unloading. I don't think Vermonters know this. They think it is someplace to put your car if you have something quick to do.
• The stop line is where you stop at a stop light. At every light, there is a line on the ground that tells you where you are supposed to stop. Some of them are far back. An expert has studied this intersection and has determined where you should stop. If you stop after the stop line, there is a possibility that a bus may come along and not be able to turn because you are in the way. Just follow the rules and traffic will flow just fine.
• Red arrows mean you can't turn. I don't know why, but people just don't seem to know this. If a green arrow means you can turn, what do you think a red arrow means? 
• If you are going to hang out as a pedestrian and just look at your phone, don't do so at a crosswalk or an intersection. You may be oblivious to this but drivers think you are going to cross and react to you. Stand back and away from the curb.
• Try, if you are close, to use a crosswalk. Some cars actually do stop if you wait in the crosswalk. Chaos is good for no one. 

Traffic flowing helps everyone. 

We recently watched all three seasons on Ted Lasso. If you haven't seen it, you should check it out. If you don't have Apple TV, sign up for a free trial, watch Ted Lasso and then unsubscribe. You'll get all three seasons in before the month is out, I promise. The reason I bring this up, the main character Ted has a philosophy that has stuck with me, that he got from my favorite poet Walt Whitman, "Be curious, not judgemental." I have been trying to get into this mind set when I drive and for the most part it has been working. 

So far I've had these experiences:

• I was at an intersection (North St. and Willard), the light turned green, I was about to go straight (east on North) when I noticed coming down Willard a bicyclist that I knew wasn't going to stop at the light. So I waited or I would have hit him. Not only did he blow off the light but he wasn't even looking at traffic; he was looking at his cell phone. Be curious, not judgemental. Must have been doing something very very important happening on that phone. This philosophy is challenging. 
• At the corner of Main and Winooski, a woman decided driving through the intersection out of her lane through a red light, all the while with her hand on the horn honking. About ten cars were at the intersection and we all stopped to let her go. They probably were as stunned as I was. Be curious: must have been a real emergency, perhaps she was going to hospital (which is in the other direction).
• While driving on College Street, heading toward Winooski and downtown, in front of the library, I had to stop for a group of homeless people (or is it houseless now?). About seven or eight of them were yelling at each other, I had no idea what was going on. I waited until most of them crossed but one woman remained in the street and decided to dance in front of my truck. I lightly beeped but she seemed oblivious. I drove around her by driving with one tire on the sidewalk. Luckily there were no other cars or pedestrians coming. The traffic behind did the same. If this were to happen again, I might get out of my truck with blinkers on and tried to escort her out of traffic. Be curious: I wonder what she was on.
• This philosophy is difficult at times, but it seems to be working. I was driving up College Street one day and I noticed a car driving erratically in my rearview mirror. He seemed to be yelling at me. He decided to pass me on a city street. I yelled, "What the hell?" or something a bit more vulgar. I noticed his Quebec plate and judgement ensued, but I stopped it with curiosity winning over. He pulled in front of me and stopped. He got out of the car and approached my truck. "Holy shit!" I unrolled the window. In a very polite French Canadienne accent, he said "Your back door is open." My freight was exposed. The guy that I was about to yell at just put a lot of energy into saving my butt. The weather stripping on my cargo door was preventing a good closure on the door. I had to do a quick repair. Ted Lasso and Walt Whitman rule. Merci beaucoup! 

The quote does sound Whitmanesque, but I didn't recognize it. I know my Walt. I was curious, of course. Snopes says it isn't Whitman, I have to believe this is true. To me, it just makes Ted Lasso a more realistic character. He is wrong on a little thing but overall, he is very much correct. 

Most of the Spring was spent delivering in Burlington and occasionally South Burlington. The only exception was the day of the total eclipse. Because of the chaos downtown, most businesses were closed so my boss didn't need me in Burlington. So he sent me up to the islands which is a really beautiful spot in Vermont. The most Northwestern part of Vermont are a group of islands in Lake Champlain that border Canada and New York state. It was a gorgeous day and I finished working in time to get back home to watch the eclipse with my family.

My Fragile Faith in Humanity / The Plague

I live with a fragile faith in humanity. I waiver, sometimes within moments, between being an all out humanist believing in humanity's unadulterated ability to overcome all to an occasional belief that humanity is a virus upon this planet. It is not an easy way to live, but I have growth to be accustomed to this dichotomy. I have adapted and it has become the norm for me. 

I go about my life like anyone else. I drive along picturesque, pastoral rural Vermont. I look upon the windmills on Georgia mountain and their awesome turning. I think of progress. I think to myself, "How wonderful we are leaning to live in harmony with our environment!" and then drive on and come across someone with a chorus of plastic blowup Walmart crap cluttering their lawn. It could be Christmas, there could be blinking lights with Santa, elves and reindeers. It is at this point when I change over to my other self. We are fucking doomed. I am in constant battle with myself. 

I just finished rereading Albert Camus' The Plague. It is a perfect book to read coming out of the pandemic. It is bubonic plague in the book but symbolically it is a different plague he is writing about. It is a plague of bad ideas. It is written shortly after World War II and it take place in his native Algiers in a small city called Oran in 1947. The world was fighting a plague of isms in mid-20th century: communism, socialism, capitalism and fascism. 

This is a philosophical novel so the journey is a personal one, one of thought and self reflection. Like most books of this nature it's soul, it's place where it sets the reader straight, it's denouement, if you will occurs towards the end of the book when the character Tarrou finally tells the main character Dr. Rieux what is on his mind. 

"... this epidemic has taught me nothing new, except that I must fight it at your side. I know positively ---- yes, Rieux, I can say I know the world inside out, as you may see --- that each of us has the plague within him; no one , no one on earth is free from it."

Life is a battle of internal dialogue in a search what is right and what is wrong. For me, the wind mills are right and a sign of progress, but the plastic blinking Santa on some idiot's lawn ... that is clearly wrong. All I can think is "What the fuck?!"  Plastic comes from oil. Roughly13.9 million acres, globally, are being used for oil production on this planet. All that habitat being destroyed so that blinking Santa can exist. Why is anyone buying this shit? If you bought it used or a long time ago, you don't have to use. You don't have to waste the electricity using it! I have to control myself not to pull the car over, in the dark, sneak their lawn and destroy this shit. I think of this each time I see one of these. My faith is fragile, but calmer minds do prevail in the end. 

The character Tarrou smiles a lot. He doesn't show his internal struggles. This is not true for me. My internal struggles are obvious. I bitch a lot, sometimes loudly. Here I go again, our plagues here in the early 21st century are different. We have global warming and the destruction of bio-diversity and it is capitalism that is bringing it on. The other isms are mostly gone but capitalism is alive and well and eating our planet, much like Galactus in Marvel Comics. Each time you buy some plastic crap, something you really don't need, you taking a bite, your bite, out of her. Capitalism is our plague. 

Camus' narrator says this early in the novel:

"In this respect our townsfolk were like everybody else, wrapped up in themselves, in other words they were humanists; they disbelieved in pestilences. A pestilence isn't a thing made to man's measure, therefore we tell ourselves that pestilence is a mere bogy of the mind, a bad dream that will pass away. But it doesn't always pass away and, from one bad dream to another, it is men who pass away, and the humanist first of all, because they haven't taken their precautions. Our townsfolk were not more to blame than others; they forgot to be modest, that was all, and through that everything still was possible for them which presupposed that pestilences were impossible. They went on doing business, arranged for journeys, and formed views. How should they have given a thought to anything like plague, which rules out any future, cancels journeys, silences the exchange of views. They fancied themselves free, and no one will ever be free so long as there are pestilences.

Camus is considered an existentialist, which is perfect for humanity's current predicament. We fight for our literal existence. But he didn't care for this term. He considered himself an absurdist, our search for meaning leads us into conflict with the world. This is me. Recently, I was having breakfast with some acquaintances and a young mother mentioned that she wanted to have five more children. I was screaming inside. I don't know why, but the pestilence of the plague is not obvious to everyone, even smart people. Denial is a lot easier than confronting reality. 

Let us not forget to be modest. 

 

Why this Liberal Won't Fly the Flag

Unless you know your neighbors very well, I would suggest you not make friends with them on Facebook. I've done this twice in the past few years and it has not been a good experience. One neighbor, whom I know her husband well but not her, was posting conspiracy theory memes about Hillary Clinton murdering Vince Foster and Jeffery Epstein. It is amazing how someone can believe that the most investigated person in American history can get away with murder. What a criminal mastermind Hillary must be!  I was in a quandary, of course, I must response to this nonsense. But how? I don't want to argue with my neighbor. The other option was to ignore the postings, but they kept coming. I didn't want to see my neighbors this way. So I unfriended her. Denial is easier. Now I wonder what she thought about my posts and if she reads my blog. Whenever, they don't return my calls, I wonder, do they see me differently now.  When it comes to neighbors, I just want to maintain the peace. 

The other neighbor is a guy I thought I knew well. He is very talkative so you think I would know him better. His FB feed was pretty quiet but when he did post, he said some fairly awful things about liberals. With my "Bernie for Senate" sign greeting him each day, he had to know that he was talking about me. The last one I saw was a meme that said something like "liberals don't put flags in front of their houses because they hate America," something of that ilk. I could not find the exact meme but I probably shouldn't share that bullshit if I did. I unfriended him. Many problems are solved with a simple click.

I saw him yesterday and he had a Trump t-shirt on. This made sense to me. Has he been radicalized by Trump or was he always like this, simply being polite to my face. I'm not sure if it matters, but one good thing has come of this experience. It got me to think about the flag. I have never flown the American flag in front of my house. My dad used to put it out on Independence Day, Veteran's Day, Memorial Day and perhaps, Flag Day. He was a WWII vet so his relationship with the flag was complicated. Mine is not. I just don't like the flag, period. But why? 

Mostly, it is an empty gesture without a lot of meaning to me. Like when a politician wears a flag lapel pin, it is more a gesture of posturing than it is of allegiance. So you love America? What does that mean, really? When you fly the flag, what are you saying that you love? Is it the government that you love? I think not. Is it the military that you love? That's a possibility. That is certainly a reason for me to not wave the flag. I do not love the military. That still does not seem right, though does it?

There is too much ambiguity in it all. Do I love America? I am not sure. Mostly because I don't know what that means really. I certainly don't hate America, but I hope for America to do better. I love somethings about being an American: the security, the opportunity and a certain level of liberty. Also, American history is fascinating but complicated and rife with problems. Racism, sexism and imperialism (I am sure a ton of other isms) is prevalent in our history. When I fly the flag, am I saying that I love that as well? When my father flew the flag, he wasn't. But he didn't think about such things, as far as I know. Life was less complicated back then, especially for us white guys. We didn't have to think of such things. This is called privilege. 

I am not a fan of nationalism. This is what the waving of the flag means to me. A blind allegiance. Nationalism leads to xenophobia, isolationism and war. I like America, but I also like Canada, France, Ireland, the Czech Republic and Portugal (these are my favorite countries which I have visited). Their histories are complicated as well. I think of them as good friends, while I think of the Earth as my mother. I only have one mother. Here's where I beat this metaphor to death: when any one of my friends give my mother a swift kick, it may seem like I hate them, but I am only protecting my mother from one of my friends who has been a bad decision. I just want America to change, to meet its potential and stop beating up on Mother Earth.

Okay, perhaps my relationship with this piece of cloth is complicated after all. My relationship with the Trump t-shirted neighbor isn't what it used to be. We had him over once. We used to chat a lot. Now I say "hi" when I walk or run by. I don't want to talk to him anymore. I just want to maintain the peace. Facebook is supposed to bring people together, but in a lot of ways, it can push us apart.  

I just wonder what he is going to think when I hang up my planet Earth flag. 

 "

Future of Local Journalism and the Collapse of the Fourth Estate

Disruption (or creative destruction) in an economy can be a great thing and an awful thing simultaneously. When the automobile was introduced, this disrupted the livelihood of thousands of people who sold and serviced horses (horse-breakers and blacksmiths) and wagons (wheelwrights). While they all lost their jobs and businesses, thousands of businesses and jobs were created making cars, paving roads and selling gas. Disruption is inherit in capitalism. Technology is not the only disruptor, but it is the most common. The biggest disruptor in my life has been the introduction of the internet and ecommerce. Almost every industry has been affected: music, education, retail, movies and gyms among others. 

Brick and mortar stores are being killed by Amazon, movie theaters are being killed by Netflix and music stores almost don't exist anymore because you can buy a song instantly on your phone or stream for free. Jobs and careers have really been shuffling for the past decade or two. I have benefited by this as well. I have been able to have a high-tech job and tele-commute to NYC each day while living in my rural home in northern Vermont. This wasn't possible twenty years ago when I moved to VT. 

Of all these disruptions, the one that bothers me the most is what is happening with local newspapers. Local news is expensive. Newspapers have to employ reporters who attend town and city counsel meetings, local events, sporting events, car crashes and fires. This is, of course, in addition to their overhead and the expenses of producing the paper. Traditionally their revenue streams are the selling of advertisement space and classifieds. When I was young, if you were looking for a job or looking for a kitten, you had to pick up the local paper. Now you can go on Craigslist for free. Craigslist devastated the classified revenue for papers, which in turn greatly reduced circulation. When circulation is down, it is harder to sell advertisement. Collapse ensued. 

In 2000, the advertising revenue for newspapers peaked to over $70 billion in the US. In 2018, it had dropped to under $15 billion which is lower than the 1950's. As of 2019, 65 million Americans live in a county with one or zero local news sources. How do citizens stay informed if there is no local news source? How can they vote confidently? How do they find out about businesses that is polluting their water or a politician that is stealing from them? They don't. Meanwhile, your local clueless jackoff has a YouTube channel, he's "telling it like it is" and giving it out for free. People are not just uninformed, they are misinformed. 

Some papers are hanging in there with a digital presence, but digital advertising revenue is still very low. There is also an increase of digital subscription in the past few years. Four in ten people under the age of 35 have at least one digital subscription. Young people are figuring out that paying for media means you get better information. Regardless, the outlook for local news to remain local is not good. When is a local paper not local? 

Since its founding in 1906, Gannett has been going around buying up small newspapers and other media markets. In addition to owning US Today, they currently own 260 daily local newspapers and about 300 national papers. These including The Providence Journal, The Cincinnati Enquirer, Detroit Free Press, Indianapolis Star, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, El Paso Times etc.  They own media in 47 states and Guam. This is a lot of power. Gannet is not immune to circulation problems. They are losing circulation even higher than non-Gannett papers. Here in VT, our "local" Gannett paper, The Burlington Free Press, circulation is down more than 36% since 2017. How long can they can survive with numbers like that? 

The Void: In capitalistic societies, the voids left by failing industries and businesses are often filled quickly but not always in desirable ways. The New York Times this week ran an article about how pay-to-play organizations are filling this void. Political and/or corporate PR groups are paying free lance reporters to write articles supporting their agendas. That agenda could be to promote their business or attack their opponents in an election. These articles are then sold to less than credible "news" papers and not labelled as advertisements, which they should be (according to the Federal Trade Commission). Here is a list of them organized by state. You may recognize some of them. Perhaps you get one of them free in the mail or perhaps, you pick one up outside your local market. They look legit because they might have a real article about your local high school soccer team or a local fire, but they are not. In 2010, there were five of these. Now there are over 1200. Something you should always remember, when you get something for free, it is not the commodity, you are. You are being manipulated into voting for someone or buying a product.  It is not journalism that you are reading but an advertisement. 

On a more positive note, David Plotz, one of my favorite podcast journalists, has created a new venture called City Cast. Print may be dead or dying, but podcasting is thriving. He is trying to create a network of local podcasts in cities around the country where the void is at its worst. I listen to podcasts all day at work. When I jump in my car, I put them on. We listen in bed. If there was a local podcast that I liked, about my town or larger local towns, I'd be listening. I feel so clueless about local news and politics. He is trying to get this going, guess what? ... he's hiring.  Contact him if you are interested. I contacted David on Twitter to find what towns they are going to start with and I haven't heard back yet. I assume medium size cities like Portland or Cincinnati. Regardless, I am excited about this. Hopefully it is coming to your town soon. 

Why Are Liberals So Bad At Branding?

You know you have a bad slogan when you have to explain it. It should make sense to you immediately. Like this one: Make America Great Again! We may not like what it says, but we understand it. We are not great now. We used to be great. Lets get back there. When your message is simple, primal (borderline racist) and hasn't changed in 100 years, messaging is easy. When your message is more nuanced and challenging, messaging is not so easy. Liberals have the harder task and they don't always succeed.

Black Lives Matter is a perfect example. People don't get it immediately. It often needs explaining. This is what I hear a lot, "All Lives Matter." Of course, they do. When someone says this, they are obviously missing the point. Some white people think that we are saying their lives don't matter. I assume it is one of these people stealing my BLM sign off of my lawn. The message is supposed to say that we acknowledge that there is a problem with racism, particularly in policing, in this country. We stand by our black friends and the oppression needs to stop. This is just too long for a sign. How about Black Lives ALSO Matter. The "also" makes it more clear, it does seem to fall flat. Maybe there would be less resistance to it if it was more inclusive. A lot of white people suffer from oppression from police. Pulling them into your plight may be more helpful. 

Another slogan that needs explaining is Defund the Police. Of course, we don't want to completely cut the budget of the police. I can't imagine what sort of mess our cities would be under those conditions. Currently, the police do too much. They direct traffic, mediate domestic abuse, investigate murder, chase bank robbers, respond to noise complaints .. the list is too long. No one has all the skills needed for this job. By defund the police, we mean to divvy up some of these responsibilities elsewhere and adjust the budget accordingly. Perhaps social workers could be dispatched to domestic violence situations instead of the cops. Seattle has volunteers policing the "protest zone" which seems to be working. The other problem is that cities are using their police as a revenue stream. Seven percent of Chicago's revenue comes from tickets ... not the police department's revenue .. the city's revenue. Yeow!  This is such bullshit. It is usually the poor they go after, because the wealthy have the resources to fight back. If you ever wonder why people hate the cops, here is Exhibit A.  

I know I have said it here before. I am a 50+ year old white man and I have yet to have a positive interaction with the police. Ever. When I was young, I seemed to have a target on my back and I really didn't make a lot of trouble. I was a bit obnoxious but I barely broke the law. I smoked pot, that was about it. I can't imagine how it would have been if I were black. Even now, as an older man, cops are rude and seem to be on a power trip no matter what the situation. A situation would have to be very bad for me to call the police. I have never called them, about anything, because I just don't trust them. I'd rather take care of problems on my own. Things are much better since I have left southern New England but it is still ingrained in me to be scared when I see a cop.  The bad part of town doesn't scare me. Seeing gang colors don't scare me. See a police cruiser does. That is just wrong. 

Few things make me shutter more, than when I think about how militarized our police have become in the past few years. I didn't need to see George Floyd killed to figure out we needed a change. I am glad others are finally figuring it out.  

The Longterm Social Effects of this Crisis

The greatest long term effect of the Spanish Flu pandemic in the early 20th century was its effect on World War I. It hit Germany and Austria before it hit France and England giving the Allies early advantages and the Allies eventually won the war. This flu is often considered the "forgotten" pandemic because there was so much else going on in the world at the time, not just a World War but other major illnesses also hit the world around the same time: yellow fever, diphtheria, cholera and typhoid.  History classes often overlook the diseases of this era because of the war. The Spanish Flu lasted 36 months and killed 50 million people. We all hope this pandemic won't be as devastating. At the writing of this sentence, the world is at three million and counting.

The long term effects I am talking about in this post are the social ones. The Spanish Flu left people with a lingering lack of trust in strangers. Strangers carry disease. This lead to isolationism and xenophobia giving way to fascists like Hitler, Mussolini and Franco. Of course, there were other factors, like a horrendous war, but the flu contributed to it. Anti-Semites have long linked Jews to the plague. Hitler famously referred to them as "racial tuberculosis" in "German lungs."  Such vile terms were more effective with the memory of the Spanish Flu fresh in their memory. .

It is impossible from this vantage point to predict the long term effects of COVID-19 on our society. Most lasting societal changes usually come as a surprise. Henry Ford had no idea that the mass production of cars would lead to more teenage pregnancies and air pollution. Did the flood of boys without fathers after World War II bring us rock and roll?  Did Roe v. Wade help bring us low crime rates decades later due to the lack of unwanted children? These are thought experiments. Let's do it, a COVID-19 version.

Celebrity: Celebrities have been showing us who they really are in this crisis. Maybe we'll finally stop making otherwise stupid, careless and mega-privileged people famous. Maybe we'll be more selective on who gets to be famous or perhaps put them on a lower pedestal. Of course not all celebrities are so bad. The smart ones know how to control themselves and shut up. You notice that Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt haven't stuck their feet in their mouths, but the hyper-narcissists and morons surely are.

• Ellen DeGeneres (aka Queen of Nice) compared her quarantine to being in a prison while she lives in a beachfront palatial mansion 
• Evangeline Lily urged people to ignore social distancing rules and isolation using terms like "Marshall Law" on Instagram which she obviously doesn't understand nor know how to spell. 
• Actress Jaimie King released a video thanking the virus 
• Gwyneth Paltrow is tweeting about what the best dildo to use during isolation, selling them as well. Some poor warehouse worker is risking his/her life to get someone a dildo. 
• Sam Smith tweeted the stages of his meltdown while he had to deal with isolation in his $15 million London mansion
• NBA player Ruby Gobert touched a bunch of mics at a media event as a joke. A few days later, he tested positive.
• Gisele Bundchen posted a picture of herself in front of a tropical waterfall meditating.
• High School Musical star Vanessa Hudgens suggested that people dying is "like, inevitable."
• Bette Middler is figuring out what her appliances do, no joke.

While many of their fans are living in tiny apartments, some of them under duress ... we get a crash course in how crudely unequal our society is. Our doctors, who keep us alive, don't live this way. Entertainers do. Will income inequality become an even bigger issue after this crisis?

Entertainment: When next year's television shows roll out, will they be including the pandemic in their story lines?  Do we want them to? Do you prefer them to have more of an escapist quality? Will we get to see the family on "This Is Us" in social isolation ... where will the plot line come from. We get to watch them binge watch other shows and argue ... not so fun.

Concert venues will be devastated by this crisis.Our days of hanging shoulder to shoulder in the dark listening to our favorite bands jam may be a thing of the past. They will be the last businesses to be allowed to open and for all we know, may not be allowed to fill them in like they used to.  This means that entry and/or beer will be more expensive ... I cried a little bit while writing this.

Environmental: Quarantine is only a few weeks old and already we see the environment recovering. Factories are idle, planes are grounded and commuters are staying home. We have cut carbon emissions worldwide by 8% and energy use is down in some places by 25% of last year. Some cities are reporting seeing constellations for the first time in decades. With the city streets desolate, wild life is returning to some areas that haven't seen them in decades. We will return to our old ways soon enough but this quick recovery might really inspire people to change. Stay home, use less, use mass transit, telecommute ... these are easy to do for some of us. We might just get into the habit.

Cities around the world have closed more than 1,000 miles of streets to cars for the use of bicycles. How much of that is going to be permanent? Seattle has already announced that 20 miles of their new bike only roads will be permanent. If the locals like it, it will stay. So if this is happening in your area. Contact a politician to keep it. They are probably desperate to find ways to make citizens happy right now.

Hate: Hate crimes are already a lot higher for anyone that looks Chinese. Trump hasn't helped with this. "Go back to China," "Kung Flu" and "Wu Flu" are all things being said to and about people from Far East origins. Hate will only subside until we get rid of the creep in the White House, but it will never go away permanently. The protests in Michigan and other states have been organized by white supremacy groups. Many of the people showing up don't even know this. I hope this is all temporary, but isolation breeds contempt and xenophobic (the evil twin of isolationism) is not far behind. I fear these people will get more powerful the longer this quarantine lasts. Here is a list from the Anti-Defamation League of anti-Asian incidents in America since this crisis began.

Sporting Events: Maybe we'll have standing ovations for doctors, scientists and other essential workers during our sporting events rather than for the military. Instead of players wearing khaki to honor the troops, maybe they will wear smocks to honor the real heroes, and not those who make invasions possible. We live in a violent nation, with a violent past. It would be nice, if our priorities could finally change.

Parades: Maybe our parades will celebrate these essential workers as well.

The Work Place: A lot of mangers are going to realize after this is over that remote employees are quite productive. I have been doing it for twelve years now and it has its distractions but compared to the distractions of being in the office, it is nothing. No one is coming into my office to talk about the game or the weather, and I have no commuter traffic to stress me out.  Telecommuting is the way to go. Those who can do it, will. Office spaces will become like empty warehouses, and food delivery, during work hours, will spike to new heights. This is not going away.

Teachers: The only real distractions, for a lot of us, these days is that kids are at home. Will there be more respect for our teachers now that many parents had to teach their own kids and they getting first hand knowledge how difficult their angels really are to teach? or how difficult teaching actually really is? I'm guessing that the snow day will no longer exist now that we know teaching can happen remotely. Teachers should have a national strike in the Fall, demanding more pay.  We'd all freak to think that we'd have to have our kids home anymore after this Spring and cave immediately. 

Essential Workers: Will people have more respect for essential workers? I am not talking about me, someone who supports a hospital's software system. But those who bring us food, stack shelves, drive trucks and buses. They are not staying home and they are keeping us alive. I am guessing once this is over, we will go back to paying them badly and not providing them health care. That's the America I know. Hopefully, I am wrong. But with scum like Trump and his loyalty cult in charge, I don't see how change for the essential worker could be possible. Can you imagine how bad it would be without Obamacare (aka the ACA)? And yet, Trump is still busy trying to repeal it. I'm guessing (and hoping) that Medicare For All will get a big boost from this crisis, but I have been very wrong about this type of thing in the past. I did predict a landslide victory for President Gore.

Trade: Isolation will raise its ugly head again. I am expecting that domestic manufacturing will make a comeback. We still have factories in the US now, but not like in the past. I expect factories, mostly with robotic workers, will increase. Buying American will give people a sense of security and consumers will pay more for that feeling ... but not a lot more.This come back will be short.lived. Businesses will find new and creative ways to trick people that something is made domestically and eventually, they will forget all about this.

The Economy - What industry will recover? Will people go to gyms anymore now that they know how easy it is to do the trainer thing on-line. I want to know how my favorite restaurants are going to survive this. Restaurants have such a thin profit margin. How could they possibly survive this? I have a friend who is a contractor who did two hours of work in April, doing a training on Zoom. The state of Vermont used that as a reason to reject him for a small business grant. You think quarantine has been crazy, the recovery is going to be completely nuts.

After the Spanish Flu, if you had the flu and survived, this gave you economic benefits over others who had not. At this point, we don't know if having COVID-19 makes you immune. If this does end up being true for COVID-19, I could imagine that anyone that works with the public would have the advantage in a pre-vaccine economy.

Privacy: Those in charge know that when we are in crisis, we are more likely to accept power grabs... think of the Patriot Act after 9/11. Some authoritarian countries are using this crisis as justification to monitor their citizens. I can imagine this will get worst before it gets better. Expect more invasion of your privacy. It will be justified under the moniker of public health.

New Cold War: Will this crisis spark a new Cold War with China. Should they pay for their negligence in the matter of the spreading of the virus and the lack of openness? As soon as healthcare workers started getting sick, they should have told the world about it. There was a three week period that we could have stopped this pandemic or at least saved many lives. Perhaps they should reimburse the world, but they won't so why push it? It also sets an awful precedence, especially with the recent discovery that the Spanish Flu started in Kansas. If we push this, they may just close their doors to the world. You think a world where is China is open is a bad thing, wait until they shut their borders!

Politics: Maybe we'll stop electing politicians who are ignorant of science. Germany elected a Chancellor that has a PHD in Chemistry who wrote her thesis on quantum chemistry ... the US elected a President who doesn't understand and rejects evolution. Guess which country has been better prepared for this crisis?  Perhaps the Republican Party's war on science will finally come to an end.

Trump missed a golden opportunity. Great presidents emerge in the midst of great crises. FDR with World War II and The Depression, Lincoln in the Civil War ... we remember them as great leaders for taking us forward. We barely remember Hoover and Buchanan ... because they faltered. This disease's second wave will be hitting us badly right around the time of the presidential election. Hopefully, people will remember Trump's disastrous performance and lack of leader while they go into the polls. 

The countries doing the best during this crisis are the countries with the strong safety nets: Germany, South Korea and Taiwan. The countries with libertarian bents, the US and the UK, are fairing badly. Will we learn from this lesson? COVID-19 is the first truly global event in human history. Perhaps it will make the world closer.  It is hard to be believe when yahoos with guns are storming statehouses.But maybe this crisis will just scare enough people to move us along on this matter. Government can be a good thing with the right people in charge.

To Impeach or Not To Impeach ... That Is the Question

Trump deserves to be impeached, that is not in question. Bill Clinton was impeached for lying about a blow job, so the bar is pretty low. Trump reached that threshold very early in his tenure as President. Some say he should have been impeached the moment he took the oath of office under the Emoluments Clause since he never liquidated his assets or put them in a blind trust. That is irrelevant now. The Mueller report hit it home in regards to whether he should be impeached with its list of ten cases of obstruction of justice. This isn't even the question anymore. The question is whether to do it or not. To impeach or not to impeach ... that is the question!

America has a very strong Constitution, but the writers of the document assumed that the enforcers of our checks and balances would be acting in good faith. They are often not. Trump is a criminal and they are doing nothing about it.

We have impeached two presidents in our short history. Andrew Johnson was impeachment mostly because he was unpopular. After Lincoln's death, he became president and he was as a Southern. The Northerners disliked and distrusted him for that. He was loyal to the North during the war, so the Southerners despised him. He was a truly awful president. If Lincoln or Grant were in charge during the early Reconstruction, we'd be a very different country now. Congress passed the Tenure of Office Act of 1867 for the sole purpose of preventing Edwin Stanton from becoming the Secretary of War.  Johnson appointed him anyway and they used this as an excuse for getting rid of him. He was impeached in the House of Representative, but the Senate voted to not remove him from office.  He beat it by one vote.He had no Vice President so the Presidency would have gone to the Speaker of the House.

Clinton is a lot more recent and I am assuming most people reading this, remember it. A lot of people don't realize that he was impeached because he wasn't removed from office. The House does the impeaching, the Senate does the removal. This was purely political. The era of hyper-partisanship in American politics was in its infancy and it has gotten much worse. Clinton was unpopular with Republicans, so impeaching him was popular with their base. Two thirds of American voters, throughout the ordeal and afterward, were against the impeachment. This didn't stop them. He was impeached in the House, and like Johnson, was not convicted in the Senate. He beat it by 17 votes. Clinton's popularity sky rocketed afterward. This is one of the reasons politicians like to steer clear of impeachment, but the voters disliked this impeachment because it was unjustified and purely political. They would respond differently to an impeachment that was justified like a Trump impeachment.

If  Richard Nixon didn't resign, he probably would have been removed from office which is why he resigned. John Dean recently testified before Congress and he highlighted six parallels between Watergate and what we are going through now:

• attempts to shut down the investigations
• the firing of FBI Director James Comey and "the Saturday Night Massacre" 
• Dean's and former White House counsel Don McGahn's refusals to carry out the president's orders 
• efforts to exert control over the investigations
• attempts to limit the disclosure of evidence
• dangling pardons to influence witness testimony.

Any one of these is impeachment worthy ... certainly more impeachable than a blow job.

Cons:
The arguments against impeaching him are fairly simple. The first one listed has been my opinion up until recently. I have changed my mind. All of these are valid concerns, even though I pro-impeachment now.

Why impeach if you can't remove him from office? We can probably muster enough votes in the House to impeach but the Senate is nowhere close to impeaching. The Republicans control the Senate and they have their guy's back regardless of what he does. The argument against this is that their minds may be changed by the impeachment process. When the Watergate scandal broke, it took months for public opinion to change. In the era of stratified media coverage of Fox News and MS-NBC, it is difficult to tell how much of the bubble will be burst by impeachment hearings. People are living in their own private media silos ... this is not the late 60's media landscape.

Impeaching and failing to remove him from office could be catastrophic politically. Some may see the Democrats as petty and will retaliate at the polls in November 2020 if impeachment fails. That could mean four more years of this monstrous presidency. The retaliation could go further. If we succeed in removing him from office, the Republicans will probably do their best to do the same the next time the Democrats have a president in office. They tried hard to find something impeachable against squeaky-clean Obama. The next Dem president may not be so clean. We already know they will impeach for stupid reasons. The argument against this is that the Republicans are going act this way anyway so we might as well do the right thing and impeach.

Pence will become President. Mike Pence may be better than Trump, but not a lot. Him being sworn into the presidency means that he can run as an incumbent in 2020 and he would probably be more difficult to beat than Trump

Pence can pardon Trump of any Federal charges. Since Ford pardoned Nixon, we know this is always a possibility.  Pence cannot pardon state charges. This is why the charges against Trump in New York State are so important. Once he is out of office, hopefully in 2021, the state can go after him without any fear that he will be pardoned.

Pros:
Lets stop the crime wave. This is the best reason to impeach this scum bag. He is committing a presidential crime wave. Lets leave the possible collusion with Russia out of this for simplicity sake. Here is a list of the crimes he has committed so far:

• the President’s debts and payments relating to efforts to influence the 2016 election 
• the President’s lack of compliance with financial disclosure requirements and lying to the FCC
• the President’s lack of compliance with campaign finance laws 
• the President’s lack of compliance with tax laws 
• rampant conflicts of interest in the President’s business practices
• the Trump International Hotel in Washington, D.C. 
• potentially fraudulent or inappropriate practices by the Trump Foundation
• public efforts by the President and his attorney to intimidate Michael Cohen or others not to testify

With him gone, these would stop and he could face prosecution on state and federal levels.

More people will get exposed to his crime wave. As stated earlier, most people live in a bubble these days. They get their news from a few sources, often with an ideological bent with which they are comfortable. The people who watch Fox News exclusively are not being exposed to the Trump crime wave. If you watch Fox News exclusive, it is quite possible that you think the Mueller Report exonerated him as opposed to the opposite. If impeachment hearings started, they may tune into C-SPAN and get exposed to life outside the bubble. Public opinion could change. This is wishful thinking but it is what happened with Nixon, but that was long before C-SPAN, social media and the 24 hour news cycle.

Not impeaching sets a precedent for the future. Not impeaching him sends a message to future presidents. You can do what you want and you won't get impeached. As long as you keep a base of vocal minions happy, then the rest of the elected officials will be afraid to confront you and hold you accountable. This is very dangerous. We all should be very concerned about this.

In the mid-term election, the Democrats were elected as a check on Trump. We all know why there was a blue wave in 2018 mid-term elections. The Democrats campaigned on holding Trump accountable. Well? When are you going to do that?  Now would be nice. 

I have changed my mind and I not only support impeachment, I think it is imperative that we impeach. Even if we don't remove him from office, we need to acknowledge that his behavior is unacceptable and that there are consequences of his actions.

I am about to call my Congressman and my two Senators. I suggested you do the same. 

Hindsight 2020: June 2019

I keep seeing memes and posts on social media blaming men for the upsurge in anti-abortion laws popping up all over the country. Such post say more about the people sharing them than they do about the actual issue. When it comes to a woman's right to choose, men and women are fairly close on this issue. All the polling I see say that 65% of American women support abortion rights while 61% of men do. Yet, this doesn't stop people from posting some very nasty posts about men while a huge chunk of the anti-choice people are women. The issue isn't men. The issue is Republicans / Conservatives and we should be doing whatever we can to prevent every single one of them from getting elected.

All this shows me is that the left still hasn't learned their lesson. However much I despises the right wing of American politics, I have to admire their ability to plan, conquer and stay on message. They came up with a 30 year plan to get conservative judges on the courts. They have manipulated districts, prevented minorities and the poor from voting and elected stooges to do their bidding. One of the more effective thing they have done is they have divided their opponents. Divide and conquer, right?  They convinced people on the left that Al Gore is as bad as George W. Bush so you better vote for Nader. They convinced people that Hillary Clinton is as bad as Trump, so you might as well vote for Jill Stein. And you might as well blame men for the anti-abortion laws when it is Republicans you need to blame (both the men and the women Republicans). So when you share some bullshit on Facebook about men taking away your rights, you are only showing that you are easily manipulated, you don't think or research before you share and you are a man-hater (aka bigot). You are only aiding the opposition is dividing us. This is how we got here.

I am not a socialist, but I believe that the socialism can be a good part of the mix. I think the people on the left don't give markets enough credits and don't account for how unaccountable government can be. Socialized medicine sounds like a good idea, mostly because I work in the health care industry and I have seen government be a force for positive change. But my support for me socialization might stop there. This probably puts me in the moderate range of Democrat.

Joe Biden has a double digit lead in all the polls. Bernie is usually in second and Harris in third with Mayor Pete and Warren flip flopping on fourth and fifth. I am leaning toward Warren and Pete these days.


Qualifying for the debates this month:
All 20 spots have been filled for the first debates at the end of June. Williamson, de Blasio and Swalwell  received the last three spots.

Announcing:
Montana Governor Steve Bullock: He is originally from Montana and both his parents were educators. He is a two term Democratic governor in a a mostly Republican state. Some see this as a strength and that he may have an ability to cross the aisle more effectively than others, but Montanans don't have strong party affiliation. It is difficult to see that this would translate well in DC. He is considered a moderate but most of his stances are on the left with the exception of his support for the coal industry which is big in Montana. Here is a list of bills he vetoed while he is was Governor.

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio: He was born in Manhattan but at the age of five, his family relocated to Cambridge MA. When Bill was 18 years of age, his father committed suicide. Bill succeeded Bloomberg as mayor of NYC on a theme of inequality. His signature achievement as mayor has been the implementation of universal pre-K in the city giving a boost to the children of poor neighborhoods. So far he only seems interested in bringing Biden down.

Still considering:

Stacy Abrams is probably not running for President but is in strong consideration for VP by many candidates which she says she is not interested in. She said she still might run.

Mark Cuban is considering an independent run. Please ignore him.

Our Field:
Jay Inslee just signed into law the country's first universal health care bill. Washington State with have a public option by 2021. Green Peace released their grades of the candidate climate change records and Jay scored the highest with Biden getting the lowest with a D-. He was on Bill Maher's Real Time.  It is a good video to show what he is all about.



Bernie Sanders spoke at a Green New Deal rally earlier this month. Matt Taibbi wrote a profile of his campaign in Rolling Stone that is worth reading. He is doing something that none of these other candidates dare ... he is courting Trump voters. The New York Times also profiled his time as mayor of Burlington, VT.

Cory Booker released a plan to decrease gun suicides.

Julian Castro released his education plan that include universal pre-K and free tuition to state colleges and technical schools.

Tim Ryan introduced the Clean Up Our Neighborhoods Act of 2019 that would give HUD the power to give grants to states to tackle urban blight. He was on Bill Maher's Real Time. He also wants to create a Chief Manufacturing Office for the federal government which just sounds like more bureaucracy.

Amy Klobuchar did a Conversation with the Candidate forum on WMUR. She also likes to talk about being a mom a lot which is nice but since she is running for President and not for the PTA board, she should really stop. She was quite good on Pod Save America.

John Hickenlooper release his gun safety plan.

Tulsi Gabbard was interviewed by Glen Greenwald at The Intercept.

Eric Swalwell appeared on Pod Save America. The more I hear him talk, the more I like him.

Seth Moulton rolled a national service corp program that would engage young people in fighting climate change.

Michael Bennet release a climate change policy that focuses on farming and conservation. He also introduced the Opioid Crisis Accountability Act that would hold the executives of opioid manufacturers accountable.

Joe Biden suggests that Congress should codify access to abortion in law. Politico wrote a scathing review of his career on drug enforcement. He released his first policy since announcing his candidacy focusing on education.

Kamala Harris reintroduced the CARE act which attempts to tackle our national crisis involving maternal care.

Pete Buttigieg is interviewed by the NY Times' podcast The Argument.

John Delaney released an infrastructure plan which invest $2 trillion in public schools and renewable energy.

Beto O'Rourke released his plan for immigration reform.

Elizabeth Warren appeared on The View.

Power Rankings:
We have 24 candidates. If I had to rank the Democrats in order of my personal preference, I would do so in the following manner:
Warren
Buttigieg
Booker
Sanders
Biden
Inslee
Swalwell
Harris
Klobuchar
O'Rourke
Hickenlooper
Delaney
Castro
de Blasio
Gabbard
Moulton
Messam
Ryan
Bennet
Bullock
Yang
(I probably won't vote if the people below get the nomination)
Gravel
Gillibrand
Williamson

This is expected to change. 

Hindsight 2020 - May 2019 Edition

Can we agree, you and I, that whomever gets the Democratic nomination, will have our support? We will not support a third party candidate whether they are a Green, Libertarian or Independent. The goal is to not have Trump as the president. Whoever wins the Democratic nomination will not be perfect. They will have something in their past that we don't like. They will have a stance that we disagree with.  We know this. The key thing we have to keep reminding ourselves is that on their worst day, they are still better than Trump on his best day. In the 2000 election in Florida, George W. Bush defeated Al Gore by 537 votes. Nader received 97,421 votes in Florida (and Pat Buchanan and Harry Browne received 17,484 and 16,415 respectively), which led to claims that Nader was responsible for Gore's defeat. Same thing happened in 2016 in state like Michigan, Ohio and Penn. If you are in a solidly blue state like California or Vermont, vote third party all you want. But if you are in a red or purple state (a swing state), you better go with the Democrat. If you don't, then you are voting for Trump by not voting for his only viable opponent ... plain and simple.

The books are closed on fundraising in the first quarter of the year. Trump leads the pack with over $30 million in his coffers.  Sanders, Warren and Harris have $20.7 million, $16.5 milli0n and $13.2 million, respectively. Don't dismay. This makes sense. The Democrats have a very competitive primary while Trump is an incumbent. Once the Dems are down to one candidate, there are many people like me, who will then donate. We have 22 candidates fighting for the same pool of money right now.

All but five candidates have qualified for the first Democratic debate Mike Gravel, Wayne Messam, Seth Moulton, Michael Bennet and Marianne Williamson. The first set will be on June 26th and 27th in Miami. A candidate will need to either have at least 1 percent support in three qualifying polls, or provide evidence of at least 65,000 individual donations from a minimum of 200 different donors in at least 20 states.

It is too bad we couldn't have all of these candidates as president and have them concentrate on their expertise. Inslee would be the environmental president, Booker would be the gun violence candidate, etc. We are very lucky to have such a great field of candidates. They are the most diverse group of candidates ever assembled. Why shouldn't they be?  We are America. We are a nation of immigrants and the candidates should reflect that. Not only in race and gender but in sexual orientation, religion, experience and age.  I love it. This is truly a big tent and a political junkie's dream. 

Announcing:

Ex-VP Joe Biden: He enters the race as a behemoth and on the top of the polls, but this is only because of his name recognition. Once the general public get to the know the other candidates, he will plateau. Once Joe starts opening his mouth and making those gaffs that we know him for, his numbers will drop. We've seen this before, Biden running for President, it is not a pleasant sight. Biden is from Delaware (born in Scranton, PA), was a US Senator for 36 years and Vice President under a very popular president Obama. In 1972, shortly after first being elected Senator, both his wife Neilla and daughter Naomi died in a car crash while Christmas shopping, Biden has a lot of baggage, particularly for liberal voters. The two big ones (1) his treatment of Anita Hill during the Clarence Thomas hearings and (2) his support for mass incarceration. He might have peaked already. I don't think we'll have a Joe Biden presidency.

US Rep. from California, Eric Swalwell: He was born in Iowa where his father was Chief of Police in a smallish town, Algona. His family moved to California when Eric was young. He's been in Congress since 2013. He has probably been the most outspoken anti-Trump voice in Congress. That is the only reason I have heard of him. Five Thirty Eight published a story of how he could win. He pledged to ask a woman to be VP on his ticket. He recently wrote an Op Ed for US Today about gun control and the NRA.

US Rep. from Massachusetts, Seth Moulton: He was born in Salem, MA to a secretary and real-estate attorney. He went to Harvard for undergrad (physics) and grad school (business and public policy). He is an ex-marine officer and lead one of the first platoons that entered Baghdad in 2003. Here is where he stands on five issues. Does it surprise you that the ex-marine wants to increase funding to the State Department?  If Gabbard is the dove candidate, then Moulton is the hawk.

Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: He was born in New Delhi, India while his father (who is from NJ) was working at the Indian embassy. His mother is a Polish Jew who survived the Warsaw Ghetto and is a school librarian. His family has political roots. His father worked for VP Hubert Humphrey and his grandfather for FDR. He's been a Senator since 2009. Before that he was the Denver Superintendent of Schools and the Chief of Staff to Denver Mayor Hickenlooper (who is also running for President). He is also the brother of NY Times editorial page editor James Bennet, who has recuse himself from editorializing on the campaign.

Drop-outs and not-running:
Ex-governor of Virginia, Terry McAuliffe, is not running for President. He is going to focus on helping Virginia Democrats.

Our Field:
We have a field of 22 now.

Booker has raised over $5 million in the first quarter of 2019 and 80% of the contributions are from first time contributors. That usually means he is attracting the young and/or tapping into something that everyone else is missing. He also introduced the Dignity for Detained Immigrants Act that would require a bond hearing for all detained immigrants.

Klobuchar has raised over $5 million as well with 85% of it coming from donors giving $100 or less. She reintroduced the Americans Giving Care to Elders Act (AGE) to give relief to people supporting elderly members of the families.

Mayor Pete got some bad press when Buzz Feed published a story about gentrification in South Bend. He appeared on Late Night with Seth Meyers. He does seem to be tapping into the hope and change phenomenon that none of these other folks are.

Bernie released Medicare For All bill. According to 538, he is doing better this time around in regards to media coverage, polling, fund raising and endorsements. Not having the spectre of Hillary in the race might explain that. He is calling for the reduction in defense spending to help pay for his programs which I love to hear. 

Warren raised $6 million in the first quarter with the average donation being $28.  Impressive! She also has the largest campaign staff among the 22 candidates.She released a Corporate Tax Plan and a plan to eliminate student debt.

Delaney announced a National Service and Climate Corp Plan for young people that has four tracts: 1) military service, 2) community service, 3) infrastructure and 4) climate corp.Also, he wants to create a Department for Cybersecurity lead by a cabinet level Secretary. He recently revealed his platform on mental health.

Harris is concentrating on California and the South rather than the traditional NH and IA.She reintroduced the Rent Relief Act to help renters recoup some of their expenses, if their rent is over 30% of our income.

Messam appeared on NPR's On Point and on an independent podcast called The Trail.

O'Rourke: Two of his top advisers left his campaign once he hired Jen O'Malley Dillon, Obama's old campaign chair, to run his campaign. He seems to be fizzling. Other than standing on tables and counter tops, he hasn't really done a lot.

Inslee appeared on Pod Save America for an interview (see below). He seems like a great candidate, but I am not sure how his "climate change is the #1 issue" goes over in middle America. I agree with him but I don't think he can beat Trump with this message. He also participated in the March for Science.




Castro says that he will create a department within the Department of Justice, just to investigate racial discrimination by police. He probably won't win the endorsement of the policemen's union.

Hickenlooper wrote an Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal, apparently stating that he opposes both massive regulation and socialism. He said, “I’m running to save capitalism.” If he is looking for more exposure, perhaps he should write for publications that aren't entirely behind a pay wall. He did appear on Pod Save America. He kinda looks like a used car salesman.

Ryan introduced a bill that would require the Department of Justice to train law enforcement  in de-escalation.

Gabbard was recently called the best Democratic candidate by former Rep Ron Paul. He said she was "the best chance to bring about peace." His endorsement may be a good enough reason to move her down in my rankings.

Yang: To demonstrate Universal Basic Income (UBI), he is going to give two families in NH and IA $1,000 a month to show how it works.  I volunteer my family if he expands this to Vermont. 

Gravel doesn't really want to be President. He wants to qualify for the debates and push the debate to the left. Check out this Vice report. He's kind of a nut. He's a 9/11 truther. He should probably be ignored.

Power Rankings:
We have 22 candidates, soon to be 23 with Mayor de Blasio soon to declare that he is running. If I had to rank the Democrats in order of my personal preference, I would do so in the following manner:
Warren
Harris
Booker
Buttigieg
Sanders
Biden
Inslee
O'Rourke
Hickenlooper
Klobuchar
Delaney
Swalwell
Castro
Gabbard
Moulton
Messam
Ryan
Bennet
Yang
(I probably won't vote if the people below get the nomination)
Gravel
Gillibrand
Williamson

This is expected to change. 

Hindsight 2020 - April Edition

With the Mueller Reporting coming out this week and it being a big disappointment, it is time to reflect on the 2016 election. We must go forward with the assumption that the only way to get rid of our corrupt and disgusting President, is by voting against him. We have a lot of things going for us: (1) he is perhaps the worst president ever, except for the army of morons that approve of him regardless of what he does, there are a lot of votes that are up for grabs, (2) we have a great field of candidates and (3) we have a lot of time with another 19 months until the election. In 2016, the Democrats had a problematic candidate who was so intensely disliked by so many people that they would vote for a reality TV star/corruption businessman/man-child over someone with 30 years of public service. It does boggle the mind that there are so many Americans out there that thought Trump would be a good president. Now, it is downright scary that some of them still support him, even though he has done nothing but screw them over since he's been in office.This is our challenge.We have an imperfect political system, we have a fascistic President with the backing of state television (aka Fox News) and we have an electorate that is perfectly satisfied with voting against their self interests. We also have a recovering economy, not because of Trump, but despite him. We are up for the challenge.

The people running the DNC (Democratic National Committee) seem to have learned their lesson from 2016; for the most part, they are not picking favorites in the 2020 race. They announced in March that they were rejecting Fox News for the debates. I understand why they did this but I can't say I agree with their decision.While, yes, Fox News seems to become a state TV network for Trump, much like RT (Russia Today) is for Putin. It is more of a propaganda network than it is a news network, but it is still the most popular "news" network in the country. Some people who watch that network may still be reachable. Having one debate in hostile territory may be a good idea. It might even be the only debate worth watching since the rest of them are so useless, unwatchable and not even debates. They are political pageantry without intrigue and seem scripted. Regardless of how bad they are, I will not only drop everything to watch them but I will be twittering away the evening with pithy comments ... how proud I am with my own wit.

Before I talk about the Democrats, lets spend some time talking about Bill Weld. He is running in the Republican primaries against Donald Trump. Since the goal is to remove Trump from office, a Weld candidacy is a good thing. He is a moderate Republican which is a rare breed these days. He also ran for VP on the Libertarian ticket in 2016. I lived in Massachusetts when he was governor. I liked him for some things and really hated him for others. He is a fiscal hawk and he was pro-gay marriage long before most people even knew it was a thing. He is smart politician who recognized how conservative the gay population of Boston was and capitalized on it. One of my worst memories of his Governorship was seeing him talking about how he reduced tuition to state colleges. Which he had done, but only by shifting the cost of education from tuition to fees. State colleges still costed the same. Under Weld tuition went down but fees went up. This sucked for someone like me that was getting tuition reimbursement from my employer. My employer didn't cover fees, only tuition. This is where Weld's policies fell into the category of your typical Republican bullshit. But lets face it, he is still much better than Trump by about a million degrees. Vermont has an open primary so I might just vote in the Republican primary. Ousting Trump before the general election would be a great thing, but I wouldn't count on it. Maybe, just maybe, Weld can damage Trump enough to hurt him in the general election ... like Kennedy did to Carter.

Joe Biden is hugging inappropriately. The media is talking about this is like it is important while our president grabs women "by the pussy," admits to it and justifies it by saying that he can get away with it because he is rich. Yet, somehow, Biden, who isn't even running for anything officially, is being talked about like he is a sexual predator. This is the era we live in. Please be smart enough to realize that this is a distraction.

Entering the race this month:
Ex-Congressman Beto O'Rourke: Those of you who are unfamiliar with Beto, check out his speeches during his recent run for Senate. He is magnetic! He reminds me a lot of Obama when he was an unknown. Beto recently ran against Ted Cruz for Senate in Texas and lost. Some may ask why we should support a loser, but he came very close in a state that is heavily Republican. Closest is recent years. His popularity outside of Texas has been is a lot higher than inside, hence the presidential run. He is an exciting candidate. His real first name is Robert. He was given the nickname Beto when he was very young to distinguish him from his grandfather who was also Robert. He is from El Paso, a border town. His mother owned a furniture store while his father was a local politician. Beto is fluent is Spanish.

Colorado Governor, John Hickenlooper: He is from Pennsylvania and was brought up by a single mom after his father passed away at an early age. He moved to Colorado to work as a geologist for an oil company. When he was laid off, he stayed in Colorado and opened a brewpub which is still in business. His records as Denver's Mayor and Governor of CO are both quite impressive.

Mayor of Miramar, Florida, Wayne Messam: I write this sentence on March 29th. Wayne announced his candidacy yesterday on the 28th. He is one of the few people running that I have never heard of before he announced. I've never even heard of the city of which he is the mayor. It is in South Florida on the Atlantic side and has a population of 122,000 which is still bigger than South Bend, Indiana. He is a first generation American with both his parents being from Jamaica.I am looking forward to learning more about him.

Congressman from Ohio, Tim Ryan: Ryan is most famous for challenging Nancy Pelosi, unsuccessfully, to be the new leader of the Democratic Party in 2016. I don't know a lot about him yet. He announced this week, the first week of April and today, the 6th, as I write this, he is having his first Presidential rally. He may do well in NH because he got his Doctorate from Franklin Pierce Law Center in Concord and may know the state better than outsiders.

Alaskan Senator, Mike Gravel: Mike is from Springfield, MA and he is from French Canadian background (hey, like me). He is my people!  He moved to pre-state Alaska in 1956. He is a Unitarian and has Libertarian leanings. He ran for president as a Libertarian in 2008.

Not running:
Michael Bloomberg
Sharrod Brown

With Bloomberg out, the moderate lane is widening making it even more likely that Biden will enter the race.It would work just fine for me if the old guard of Biden and Sanders, just stepped out of this race. It is time for new younger blood. Sure, Biden might wipe the floor with Trump but I am willing to bet that Booker Warren and Harris and most of these other candidates would as well.

Our field:
Elizabeth Warren: She has really been impressing me.She has proposed a wealth tax that would be used to fund universal childcare. She has proposed a plan to break up big tech firms like Google, Amazon and Facebook much like we did in the 80's with the Bell Systems. She has also presented a plan to eliminate the electoral college. She is definitely the policy candidate.

Bernie Sanders: The spark that Bernie ignited in 2016 is not so bright in 2020 with 17 other, mostly great, candidates.  Now that he is sharing a stage with some other lefties that are younger and have basically, a lot of the same ideas as him, his popularity isn't quite so high. He's not the Johnny-Come-Lately anymore, but old news. I love Bernie, I will vote for him if he is the candidate, but I just don't think he will be. He is too old and too damaged.

His volunteers need to stop bothering me:

Zephyr, Christina and Rafeena need to chill.

Cory Booker: Booker has always been a fighter for the less privileged. His most recent proposal is baby bonds. Basically, each newborn gets a $1,000.00 bond at birth. They can't touch it until they turn 18, after it has been accumulating interest. The hope would be that they could pay for college, or at least assist them in the transition to adulthood. Somehow, I think we are looking at a boom in keg parties starting in 2038.

Kamala Harris: She wrote an opp ed in the Washington Post about teacher's salary. If you are, know and/or love a teacher, this might really hit a vein with you. Teacher's require the same level of education that doctors and lawyers do, yet are compensated at a much lower rate mostly because we fund their salaries with our property taxes. Harris proposes that the federal government get more involved in raising the bar a bit. When a state increases a teacher's pay by one dollar, the federal government will contribute three. This might put some fire under some people. There are a lot of teachers in this country and all of them are underpaid. As long as this isn't another one of those Federal mandates that aren't funded, I am all for it.

Jay Inslee: He is hitting me hard with email mostly asking for money. I understand, but delete you I must Mr. Inslee. I don't have a lot of money, so until I can see he can beat Trump, he isn't getting any of my money. He is getting a chilly response from New Hampshire Democrats mostly because of his poor support of Molly Kelly when he was the chairman of the Democratic Governors Association.

Pete Buttigieg: He continues to impress me. Maybe we need a millennial as our next president. He's very smart and extremely likable. Check out this interview he did on Pod Save America. He's on message and engaging for the entire hour. The fact that he is gay, is open and quite comfortable about it, does make him a stand-out. Every interview I have heard with him is like this one. He'd be a great president.

Julian Castro: He has released an immigration policy proposal that would give 11 million illegal immigrates a path to citizenship. He's also on Real Time with Bill Maher this week which should give him some exposure.

John Delaney: He released a plan to revitalize rural American called the "Heartland Fair Deal" which concentrated on assisting local businesses completing with large companies and fighting climate change. The rural vote is something that the Democrat Party has really failed with the past few decades. It is nice to see someone giving them attention.

Amy Klobuchar: She is the first candidate that I have seen give infrastructure a priority. She has release a plan to revamp our transportation infrastructure. I bitch about the roads a lot, so here it is, a candidate that should go to the top of my list. She is also focusing on "heartland economics" and is reported a really difficult person to work with. If she is elected, expect high turn-over ... ahem ... but nothing close to what we have now with Agent Orange in the White House.

Andrew Yang: This guy is still very intriguing. He has no chance to win but hearing him talk about the Universal Basic Income (UBI) is fascinating. Jobs are being lost now to automation, not to illegals, foreigners or trade deals. Artificial Intelligence is getting so good now that even skilled labor is being replaced. With self driving cars becoming viable, we may not need truckers within the next five or ten years. So what do you do when jobs just don't exist. UBI is basically a stipend, of $1k a month, to every American whether you have a job or not. Wild idea. If you are interested, check out Yang's appearance on the Joe Rogan podcast. I don't expect this to go anywhere, but it is certainly a great though experiment.

Tulsi Gabbard: She has visited NH, IA, CA and PA in March, but hasn't released any major policy proposals. One has to wonder if she is just running for VP.  If a man gets the nomination for President, you would think that she would be in the running for VP.

We have 18 candidates running for the Democratic nomination with two running for the  Republican. If I had to rank the Democrats in order of my personal preference, I would do so in the following manner:
Warren
Harris
Booker
Buttigieg
O'Rourke
Sanders
Hickenlooper
Inslee
Klobuchar
Delaney
Castro
Gabbard
Messam
Gravel
Ryan
Yang
Gillibrand
Williamson

But this will change. I am not ready to open my pocket book yet.

We have some great candidates here. I hope they continue to do what they are doing ... stick to the issues. The big issues are healthcare and the environment. Hopefully they do not over-commit. If they are elected and cannot deliver, we will be back to another worthless Republican president in four years.