I would love to blog everyday but it just doesn't happen these days. I do learn something new each day, but a lot of it just isn't worth blogging about.
The week leading up the Super Tuesday, I planned on voting for Amy Klobuchar with Pete Buttigieg as a backup. I finally remember how to spell their names. They both dropped out just days before. The Democrats learned from the Republicans in 2016. The GOP candidates in 2016 feared that Trump was taking over the election because they were splitting the moderate vote. They dropped out of the race too late. So the Democratic moderates dropped out before Super Tuesday allowing Biden to win 9 of the 13 states. It didn't work for me. I voted for Bernie, but he only won California, Colorado, Utah, and Vermont.
Can we all agree? All of these Democratic candidates would be a much better president than the ass clown that we have in office now. Whoever gets the nomination gets my vote in the general election. I was looking for a moderate that wasn't Joe Biden, but if he gets nominated, I am all in.
I voted for Bernie mostly because I know him and trust him. He is a Vermont icon that is widely respected throughout the state, but I have concerns about his ability to be elected in the general election. Leftist populist ideas may look good on a bumper sticker but they are losers when it comes to the general election. When people look closely at them, they shudder. Paying for them ... to play with words ... is very taxing. The leftist turn in Democratic politics has been overstated. It looks like Ocasio-Cortez will lose re-election in 2020. Democrats aren't using the Green New Deal and Medicare for All in their television ads ... Republicans are, to scare voters. Our most famous liberals didn't run on liberal platforms. FDR ran on balancing the budget, Kennedy ran on cutting taxes for the rich. Those who ran on liberal policies have lost miserably. How miserably? McGovern-miserably, Mondale-miserably. Maybe Bernie has his base fired up enough but the rest of the party is not and his base hasn't really been showing up at the primaries. This scares me. Young people talk a good game ... but they need to show up to vote.
I am also concerned about the down-ballot. Biden will bring in more party loyal voters who will select Democrats down ballot. The new president will need votes in Congress to reform health care. Since Bernie is really not a Democrat, he may have difficulty on both sides of the aisle.
Biden looks safer, but I would like to point out that being safe often loses elections.We thought Hillary was safe. I am torn.
I want to thank you all for helping me make my decision. I am unsure if I am going to publish another one of these.
Delegate count
Candidates need 1,991 delegates to get the nomination. If he/she doesn't get this, it goes to the convention which could be quite messy and would probably go Biden.
The count is as follows: Biden - 664 Sanders - 573 Warren - 64 Bloomberg - 61 Buttgieg - 26 Klobuchar - 7 Gabbard - 2
We have 11 states voting in March and two territories. Of them, Michigan is the largest with 125 delegates.
Dropping Out:
Thank you all for your service. Michael Bennet Andrew Yang Deval Patrick - endorses Biden. Pete Buttigieg - endorses Biden. Amy Klobuchar - endorses Biden Michael Bloomberg - endorses Biden. Tom Steyer - endorses Biden.
Elizabeth Warren - - endorses Sanders.
Our Field:
Both candidates are considering stronger security. Biden had protesters jumping on stage with him during his Super Tuesday rally in LA. Today, someone showed up at a Bernie rally with a Nazi flag. Bernie Sanders: Announced how he is going to pay for everything that he has promised. He plans to tax the wealthy, the fossil fuel industry and cut military spending.
Two Florida Democrats sue Sanders to keep him off the state ballot because he is an independent, not a Democrat.
Joe Biden announces a six figure ad buy. He appeared on Fox New Sunday with Chris Wallace. Biden calls him Mike who was Chris's father.
Depression is physical. It is chemical. It is not me, yet it is me ... it is all me.
Depression is a cage with an apparent key. You cannot lift it.
Depression is a blanket that has no warmth. It is a weighted vest, a time bomb, an impenetrable shell. It punches you from all directions. It is a hand, choking.
Depression is an action and you are the object. It is a drama in which you are the star and the audience.
Depression is mean. It is fractured relationships. It is watching it happen. It is a hobgoblin, a beast, a shiver, a scream ... a very quiet scream.
Depression is faking it. It is hiding it. It is explaining it and explaining it again. It is wanting, yet you know not what for. It requires great effort.
Depression is breathing deeply, it is stretching, it is waiting. It is writing.
Depression is a long winter. It is a deep well, a long pause, a deep sigh. Even puppies cannot cure it.
Depression is a lost nation of thought ... all around you. What was good yesterday cannot be found.
Depression is mostly wrong.
Depression is self-obsession, narcissism, the universe is spinning and you are the fulcrum.
Depression is tiring, it is lonely even in crowded rooms, it is eating because it feels good.
Depression is a lot of things, but it is definitely not sadness.
As I write this, the caucuses in Iowa are happening. I am expecting Bernie to win in a very big way, but I could be proved wrong by the time I publish this. Caucuses work differently than primaries. In a primary people just vote, show up and leave. But a caucus can be an all-day affair. You show up for your candidate, you get counted. If your candidate doesn't get at least 50%, you can't caucus for that candidate anymore and have to choose someone else. If your second choice candidate is still in it, you can caucus for him/her. When Iowans were polled, Bernie was always on top when it came to people's second choice. So not only is he going to pick up his fanatical voter base, he is going to get many of Klobuchar's supporters when she doesn't get 15%, Mayor Pete's supporters etc. etc. So Bernie could come out of this very strong.
It seems to me that Bernie is going to win the nomination. If anyone challenges him, it will not be Warren or Biden, but Bloomberg. Bernie is rising in the polls, he has the most resources, he is the most popular second choice of voters and very few of his opponents are attacking him. Can a candidate win the Democratic nomination while ignoring the moderates? He has a very passionate group of supporters and they are young. The bigger question is can Bernie beat Trump? The moderates may not show up. Will their hate of Trump be motivation enough that they will vote for a socialist? I am full of questions.
Whatever happens, they need to stop calling each other liars. One of Democrats' big assets is that their opponent is a huge liar. If two of our top candidates are also liars ... this will only feed apathy. The idea that politicians are all liars is already prevalent. They are not helping.
The impeachment trial is going to end with an acquittal. This is going to happen very soon as well. With the President and now the Senate Republicans blocking testimonies of key witnesses, how else could it end? Why are they blocking the witnesses ... Bolton etc? Trump is guilty as shit. What else could be going on? It is the same situation with his tax returns. If he had nothing to hide, he'd be eager to show his innocence.
What is on the ballot this year? Not just the president, but the presidency itself. If he is re-elected, this is proof of concept. It was not a blip or a mistake of the Electoral Congress. It will be proof that his form of demagoguery works and a slew of new Trump-like minions will be unleashed on us. You think we are in madness now, just wait.Trump will have changed the Presidency, but not in a good way. Not at all.
Busy as Jurors at Impeachment Trial: Senators Bennet, Warren, Sanders and Klobuchar are all stuck in Washington. They all have surrogates on the road for them in NH and IA along with their spouses.
Dropping Out: Williamson - She teleported away to another realm where you can actually get some political experience and not bother us again until she does. She is endorsing Andrew Yang.
Booker - When Booker originally announced, I thought he was going to be a front runner. Once again, I was way off. He didn't run a great campaign, constantly talking about his neighborhood. Most voter's neighborhoods look nothing like his neighborhood, especially in Iowa and New Hampshire. Perhaps if more diverse states like Nevada and South Carolina were first in the nation to vote, Booker might be on top. I like the idea of states rotating their primary dates.
Delaney:- Former Congressman and businessman John Delaney dropped out of the race just a few days before the Iowa caucus. Why does someone go through all this and drop out before a single vote is cast? Boggles the mind!
Since Michael Bloomberg has entered the race, the price of television ads has risen 20%. This is making it more difficult for other, non-millionaire, candidates to buy television ads. The Superbowl will have two candidates advertising, Bloomberg and Trump. He is also the only primary candidate to visit all 14 Super Tuesday states. He's all in on Super Tuesday.
Power Rankings:
I count 10 candidates. I am still sticking with Amy. She has the political chops and the experience to not only win but to be an excellent president.
I have moved Bloomberg up even more this month because he is on a roll and could be the candidate. We'll have to see how he does on Super Tuesday.
Klobuchar
Sanders
Bloomberg
Warren
Buttigieg
Biden
Bennet
Patrick
(I probably won't vote if the people below get the nomination)
2019 was an interesting year for us. The big change is that we took in a young foster child. Without going into the details of the child, this is a life changer. I am enjoying it but I am exhausted. I am also going to the movies less and reading less. Also, I only posted 21 blog posts this year, while the last few years I was in the 40's. I only completed three books this year but one of them was a huge classic, Middlemarch. I have told myself that I would read one classic a year the rest of my life so I will be lucky if I finish one book a year now. Favorite Trips: We had a few destination weddings this year with friends getting married in Chicago and the Bahamas. Chicago was fun as usually. After the wedding we drove to some baseball towns and took in four games in Cleveland and Pittsburgh (to see the Red Sox and the Cubs). We also visited Falling Water in the Pittsburgh suburbs. We chose not to stay at a resort on the Bahamas and rented an AirBnB in the Nassau suburbs. This was a good idea since we really don't care for the resort experience. We took the local bus all over the island and really enjoyed the local flare. Of course, the beaches were awesome. We also took a road trip to Ottawa to go the Ottawa BluesFest. This was a new experience for me, because of severe thunder storm, they moved the entire crowd into a nearby museum to wait out the storm. Only in Canada.
Best Live shows: We saw some great shows this year. We saw Lyle Lovett and his Large Band, the Avett Brothers, the Fruit Bats, Greg Brown, Jason Isbell and Rodrigo Y Gabriela. Every show was phenomenal. For my wife's birthday we went up to Ottawa for the BluesFest because she is a big fan of Jason Isbell. We lucked out in that Rodrigo Y Gabriela, one of our favorites, was playing on the same day. This was the best show of the year. I have always been a huge fan of Pink Floyd. I never thought I'd see someone cover "Echoes" but Rodrigo Y Gabriela did it and blew me away.
Media: Best New Podcast: I discovered a handful of new podcasts this year:
The Al Franken Podcast
Useful Idiot with Matt Taibbi and Katie Halper
Against the Rules with Michael Lewis
The Joe Rogan Experience
The Femsplainers
An Arm and a Leg
The best is Al Franken's. He got a raw deal and it is great to see him (hear him) bounce back.
Favorite new TV show:
We never finished ER but we are close. We will eventually. It does hold up, but it does jump the shark in the latter seasons. In the meantime, I discovered a lot of new shows in 2019: Cobra Kai, The Morning Show, The Watchmen, His Dark Material, The Girlfriend Experience, The Terror, Mars, Chernobyl, Killing Eve, Penn & Teller: Bullshit!, NOS4A2, Catch 22, The Alienist, Living with Yourself, Another Life, Criminal: UK, Unbelieveable, Tuca and Bertie, Black Summer and Counterpart. The surprise of the year was Cobra Kai which I expected to hate. It is a sequel to The Karate Kid which is a movie I liked when it came out 30 years ago, but doesn't really hold up now that I am a discernible adult. But the show is a lot more nuanced than the movie. Daniel is not necessarily the hero and Johnny isn't all bad. Both characters are middle aged and living in the past. It is portrayed by the same actors which is impressive. It still has karate but it is less melo-dramatic than the fairly awful movie from my youth. But the best show may be Unbelievable which is a story about a young girl who is raped who believed by no one. The story and the acting are top notch. At times, I didn't believe her story. Favorite Albums: I bought six albums/CDs from 2019. "Gold Past Life" by The Fruit Bats is my favorite. It reminds me of their performance at the ArtsRiot in Burlington. The Avett Brothers album was a disappointment with the lyrics taking a right turn and The Flaming Lips album is as weird as ever, a bit too weird this time. "Closer Than Together" by the Avett Brothers "The Flood in Color" by Joe Pug "Gold Past Life" by Fruit Bats "Come What May" by the Joshua Redman Quartet "King's Mouth: Music and Songs" by The Flaming Lips "Mettavolution" by Rodrigo Y Gabriela Favorite Songs: I only bought 127 MP3s this year that were new songs from 2019. These are some of my favorites: Manifest - Andrew Bird We Americans - Avett Brothers World Gone Crazy - Beans on Toast Mint Condition - Caroline Spence Special Announcement - The Felice Brothers The Bottom of It - The Fruit Bats Go Crazy - G. Love and Special Sauce (featuring Keb Mo) Overexcited - Guster The Stranger I've Been - Joe Pug East October - John Moreland Unwed Fathers - John Prine with Margo Price How We Do - Joshua Redman Quartet Golden Embers - Mandolin Orange Rikers Island - Raphael Saadiq Morse Code - Reina del Cid Echoes - Rodrigo Y Gabriela Confessions - Sudan Archives This Life - Vampire Weekend Alabaster - The Wood Brothers There are a lot of brothers in there. While Echoes does blow me away, I am so impressed with Sudan Archives and her use of the violin. My favorite original song of the year is Confessions by Sudan Archives and Echoes is my favorite cover. 2020 promises to be a great year. We will hopefully get rid of Trump this year, more like by election than removal from office but either one will do for me.
As of December 2, 2019, 972 candidates have filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to run for president. Here is the complete list. This number includes 296 Democrats, 148 Republicans, 44 Libertarians, and 19 Green Party candidates. Very few of them are on any of our ballots. Filing with the FEC is the only step to get on our state ballots. Each state has specific requirements. Not many people have the resources to get on the ballots in all 50 states and the territories. So when you are watching a debate and are a little ticked off that a few candidates are not allowed, there are a lot more than you think. Even some major candidate won't appear on our ballots. Michael Bennet, Cory Booker and John Delaney will not appear on my home state, Vermont's, primary ballot so if one of my neighbors is reading this and want to vote for one of them, be prepared to write in.
In most states, the top four candidates in polling are Biden, Warren, Buttigieg and Sanders, but the fifth spot is up for grabs in a lot of them. I have seen Yang, Gabbard, Klobuchar and Bloomberg in some of them. Once voting starts, it will be very interesting.
Here is this month's debate that had only seven candidates:
Impeachment: You need only a majority to set the rules of the impeachment so the Republican moderates may control what the Senate trial looks like. Look to Romney, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski.
Dropping Out:
Joe Sestak
Our Field: Julian Castro released his plan to end hunger in America.
Tulsi Gabbard released a resolution to withdraw troops from Syrian oil fields.She didn't vote for impeachment so she is dead to me.
Tom Steyer, a well-know Trump hater, used his millions to buy the domain KeepAmericaGreat.com to sell "TRUMP is a Fraud and a Failure" bumper stickers. He released a proposal to invest $125 billion in historically black colleges.
I count 14 candidates. I am still sticking with Amy. She has the political chops and the experience to not only win but to be an excellent president.
I have moved Bloomberg up because it seems clear, he could destroy Trump in a general election and yes, he was a decent mayor.
I have to admit that the biggest thing I don't like about Bernie Sanders is not him but his supports. They are very inflexible and seem like they may pull the same act they did in 2016 ... just not voting because their candidate is out of it. If they would have showed up for Hillary in Ohio, Pennsylvania or Michigan, we wouldn't be in this mess. It doesn't seem like they have learned anything and may do the same in 2020.
One positive about Bernie. When it comes to second choices, he is the most popular candidate. So as other candidates start dropping out, he will move up faster than others. This is big. I love Bernie, even though many of his supporters are lunatics. I moved him up and moved mayor Pete down a little. He's been getting beaten up lately and not handling it that well.
Klobuchar
Sanders
Warren
Buttigieg
Biden
Booker
Yang
Bloomberg
Delaney
Castro
Patrick
(I probably won't vote if the people below get the nomination)
Quid pro quo (or "this for that") is common in politics. The swapping of favors is how the system works. If you vote for a bill that helps my state (this), I will vote for a bill that helps yours (that). The problem with the Trump Ukraine situation, the "that" is a political favor urging a foreign power to get involved in our Federal elections. There is some truth to the statement that this is not a "quid pro quo" because these swaps usually are not lined with a threat. To threaten to withdraw aid to Ukraine for a political favor is not only unethical and an impeachable offense, but it is a huge change in American policy in how we deal with security in Europe. For seventy years, since World War II, security in Europe has been maintained by the nations involved following certain rules of behavior. When Russia invaded the Ukraine is 2014, those rules were broken. Our sanctions against Russia and aid to Ukraine were just, reasonable and necessary. When Trump plays political games with these factors, he is playing with fire and a good argument could be made that he is committing treason. He consistently shits on our allies while throwing bones to tyrants around the world.
He undoubtedly will be impeached in the House, but thanks to Moscow Mitch and the rest of Trump's lapdog GOP Senators, it will not go far in the Senate and Trump will remain in office. We'll be lucky if we even get a trial. It is possible that Moscow Mitch will let the inquiry in the Senate take a lot of time to interfere with the election since several of the Democratic candidates are Senators. The problem with Trump isn't just him but the system that produced him and his political party. They need to be replaced with reasonable people who respect the rule of law, especially Mitch McConnell. This is why we need not only a candidate that can win but one who positively impact down ballot candidates. We don't need another Hillary Clinton who inspired no one and who convince many that the Democrats are as bad as the Republicans.
The more people see Biden, the less support he gets. It seems that people like the idea of Biden, but not Biden in person. He has high name recognition, but after they get to know him, they are unimpressed. Buttigieg on the other hand is growing in popularity the more people are exposed to him. In the latest polls, he is ahead in Iowa. Senator Warren said something that I found thought provoking. I am paraphrasing, she said that the Republicans are going to oppose whatever we come up with, so we might as well aim high. This is a really good point. She is clearly the smartest person running but I am concerned, as I have stated in prior posts, that she is too extreme for the mainstream Democrat. I am not only concerned about her support in the general election, but how she would affect the rest of the electorate. Will she help get more Democrats elected or less? Will the moderate Democrats not show up or vote Republican as a moderating force? Regardless of how much I like Sanders and Warren, it makes me still want to pull to the center and Biden is not the answer.
Voting begins in February. Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina will be telling, but Super Tuesday is where kill shots are going to take place.
Reflections on the Impeachment Inquiry Hearings:
In November we had the impeachment inquiry hearings. Many Americans actually thought these were the actual impeachment hearings. They weren't. After they were done, a report was produced by the Intelligence Committee. The actual Impeachment Hearings started this week.
I have little patience for anyone that states that he doesn't deserve impeachment. We has violated the emoluments clause, he has obstructed justice, he has intimidated witnesses, he is guilty of using the presidency for personal gain, bribery and treason. Impeachment is the only course of action to deal with a President like this. We cannot take legal actions because the Justice Department reports to him. Not impeaching him, means that we are inviting future presidents to do the same as him. If you are living in state with a Senator that will not impeach, I surely hope you are on the phone with their office right now expressing your outrage.
The actual hearings are political theater for news junkies like me. The panelists aren't supposed to have an opinion in the inquiry and are only supposed to be inquiring into the truth. yet everyone Representative doing the questioning already seems to have decided where they stand. The two party lawyers, Daniel Goldman (D) and Stephen Castor (R) seem to be the only people who adhere to this. Both of them are quite impressive.
Throughout the hearings, there is a reference to a "drug deal." This a metaphor. There are no drugs involved here. It is in reference to a comment that John Bolton made that was quoted heavily: "I am not part of whatever drug deal Sondland and Mulvaney are cooking up." So if you tuned in late, you might think there are drugs involved. No such thing. Only geeks like me that watched it from start to finish may have noticed this.
No one is paying attention. Naively, I keep hoping for an upsurge in Republican Senators standing up to oust this guy. No such luck. We all know how this is going to end. He'll have to remove him at the ballots. There is no political courage in the Republican party.
The Debate:
There was another debate in November. Nothing of any interest happened as far as I can see. Andrew Yang is polling 5th and he only got six minutes which doesn't seem right. It is not really worth watching but I included it anyway in case you are interested.
Dropping Out: Tim Ryan dropped out of the race to run in Ohio's 13th congressional district. He endorsed Joe Biden for President. Wayne Messam dropped out of the race. He barely left his home state of Florida. I'm not sure why he even tried. Steve Bullock dropped out of the race. He never went over 1% in the polls and failed to raise enough money to continue. Mark Sanford withdrew himself from the Republican primary. Kamala Harris dropped out and this is big news. She is the first major candidate to drop out. She had a surge after the first debate and then she got a lot of media coverage. With more attention comes more scrutiny and she did not handle it well. She lost a lot of volunteers and donors. It is odd that she went this far and drops out before Super Tuesday (which includes her home state of California).
Entering the Race: Deval Patrick - He is from the South Side of Chicago, he is the ex-governor of Massachusetts and now employed by Bain Capital. He is a great speaker like his close friend President Obama. Mike Bloomberg - The stop and frisk guy. He is ex-mayor of New York City. He plans on skipping campaigning in the early states and concentrating on Super Tuesday states.
What this race does not need is two more millionaires to jump in late. They add nothing new to the race. I thank them for their interest but I think I will ignore them for now.
Our Field: Cory Booker was on the Daily Show.
Joe Sestak was on an episode of Shooting the Shit.
Bernie Sanders released his plan for veterans and his immigration plan. He was interviewed on one of my favorite podcasts, The New York Times' The Daily. It makes me love him all over again.
Andrew Yang released his technology plan. He appeared on Jimmy Kimmel Live.He is wearing his MATH pin as usually. He says it stands for Make America Think Harder. I like this guy.
I count 15 candidates. I am going with Senator Amy Klobuchar this month. She is Elizabeth-Warren-lite. She has the right politics but more moderate. I find her very smart, witty and she has an impressive history. Much more impressive than Pete Buttigieg whom I like, but lets face it, he is the mayor of a tiny city. Is he ready for the big stage? I don't know.
If I had to rank the Democrats in order of my personal preference, I would do so in the following manner:
Klobuchar
Buttigieg
Warren
Sanders
Biden
Booker
Yang
Gabbard
Delaney
Castro
Sestak
Patrick
Bloomberg
(I probably won't vote if the people below get the nomination)
Thank you for helping me think this election through. This is a difficult decision and I wouldn't be able to make an intelligent decision without someone to talk to. I am coming to the conclusion lately that Republicans are even more disgusting than I thought they were. The president's behavior is so repulsive and their lack of getting behind the impeachment only shows how little respect they have for the US Constitution which they claimed to love so dearly when President Obama was in office. Trump seems to use the Constitution as toilet paper on a daily basis and most of them stand behind him waiting to flush. Where is the civil outrage?
Impeachment is a not a gleeful thing. It is something we do with many regrets. It is an admission of failure as a society. But it is something that needs to be done and those who have had the courage to go forward with it, especial those in his own party, should be thanked, and certainly, not punished. They are simply doing their job.
In the meantime, we turn to the election for a more civil way to replace an incompetent, ill-prepared and uncivilized leader. The impeachment process affects the election in two ways:
The amount of media coverage of the impeachment takes away from the candidates. This badly affects the lesser known candidates.
Once the process gets to the Senate, the six Senators (among our 18 candidates) will have to spend a lot of time putting the president on trial. The other candidates (the governors, the mayors, reps, ex-cabinets members, business people and VPs) will still be out there campaigning.
Both of these advantage Biden. He is the only candidate that still beats Trump in polling in all the battleground states.
With Joe Biden becoming the king of gaffes and the Democrats being too afraid to go as far left as Warren and Sanders, I expect other moderate candidates to get a boost every time Biden opens his mouth. Klobuchar, Harris, Buttigieg ... here is where you make your move. If they were considering moving their queen into their opponents' pawns at some point, that moment would be now. Buttigieg is already polling higher than Biden in Iowa. He might just be the candidate to pull ahead of the field.
Something we should all remember whenever Giuliani talks about Biden. It was Biden that torpedoed his presidential campaign back in 2008 ... a noun, a verb and 911 comment. Giuliani obviously has a vendetta against him. I don't believe a word he says about Biden.
Dropping out: Beto O'Rourke: In 2018, when he ran for US Senate, O'Rourke set a record for the number of votes ever cast for a Democrat in the state of Texas and he lost to the very awful Ted Cruz. This got him a lot of press outside of Texas and a lot of popularity. Some of us thought he was the next Obama. He has suspended his campaign. We'll see him again.Texas will be blue soon.
Our field: Congressman Ryan did not make the debate stage this month, but remains in the race.
Governor Bullock didn't make the cut for the debate either.He talked at the Politics and Eggs series in New Hampshire.
Both Congressman Sestak and MayorMessam didn't make the numbers for the debate either. I am not sure why they are wasting everyone's time. If they don't have the name recognition and support by now, they won't by election day.
Congressman Delaney was interviewed on Fox Business.
Senator Warren released a plan to assist people affect by climate change.
Mister Yang was on Freakonomics, one of my favorite podcasts, last January. I just heard it so I am sharing it now. He is fascinating. He also appeared on the Rachel Maddow Show to talk about foreign policy:
