Hindsight 2020: July 2019 edition

It is easy to say that a lot of these candidates should drop out if they are still only at 1 or 2% in polls at this point in the race, but it is still early. In 1991, Paul Tsongas wasn't even at 1% at this point and he went on to win New Hampshire and won five of the first 15 primaries/caucuses. He ended up losing to Bill Clinton who was also polling below 2% at this point in 1991. Jimmy Carter was only at .75% at this point in 1975. I realize we live in a very different era now, but a long shot still has a chance at this point. I am not predicting a surge for Michael Bennet or Tim Ryan, but I am not ruling anything out either.

On all the polling I see, five candidates stand out: Biden, Sanders, Harris, Warren and Buttigieg. Biden is always first and sometimes with a double digit lead. Polling is imperfect and it is still early. Most Americans don't pay as close attention to this as I do. Most voters pay attention to the election like I do the Super Bowl. The day before the game, I ask who's playing. Those of us paying attention pick the candidate for the rest of them. We need to pick someone who can beat Trump.

I found the debates very interesting and entertaining. I hate having raise-your-hand type of questions in a debate but with this many candidates on the stage, I can't see how we could avoid it. These debates were much better than usual. Some real discussions, disagreements and arguments happened. We can argue policy all we want, but no one is going to beat Trump because of great policies. That might serve them well in the primary but not in the general. If voters voted based on who had the best policies, Hillary Clinton and Al Gore would have won in landslides. Voting is more primal and emotional.

I thought Castro, Sanders, Warren, Harris, Delaney, Booker, Buttigieg, Swalwell and Hickenlooper, all did well at the debates. O'Rourke, Biden and Gabbard, not so. Both Harris and Warren are surging since, Biden, Sanders and Buttigieg are falling.

I am torn because I like what some of the people on the left have to say. Warren and Sanders appeal to my sense of wanting to tear the whole shit house down and rebuild from ground up. But it is this very thing that is going to scare the heck out of the moderate voters in the general election. If it is Warren/Sanders against Trump in the general election, the moderates will have no place to go again. They will split their votes or vote third party or just not show up ... just like they did in 2016. This is why I am drawn to a moderate like Joe Biden who is ahead in the polls right now. I have no love for Joe Biden. I think he, like all of these candidates, is flawed. But in the general election, if the moderates have a choice between Biden and Trump, they will flock to Joe. In 2016, a ton of Obama voters voted for Trump. Was this because they loved Trump? Of course not. It was because they hated the alternative, Hillary. We need an alternative that is at least palatable to the moderate. Trump will try to make Biden seem as unlikable as Hillary in the next few months, but I don't think he'll succeed. I know some Republicans that hate Trump as well. Some of them even voted for Hillary but most did not. Most of them will NOT vote for Sanders or Warren but they would for Biden, Klobuchar, Hickenlooper or Delaney. The goal here is to defeat Trump. Remember: Perfection is the enemy of progress. If you are waiting for the perfect candidate to vote for, you could be waiting a very long time.

Trump has a steady base of support but after that, his support is slim. We need to go after these slim supporters. To do this, Democrats need stop talking about the minimum wage. The people that are hurting the most now are people that used to have $30 to $40 an hour manufacturing or mining jobs. A $15.00 minimum wage just makes them shutter. Democrats used to do well with this crowd. How do you attract them without lying to them? Be honest and tell them that their old jobs aren't coming back. Tell them about the new jobs they will get in the Green Economy. Trump attracts them by lying to them and demonizing immigrants. The higher ground of the truth is a winner here.

Announcing:
Joe Sestak is a Congressman from Pennsylvania. He is ex-Navy and a Persia Gulf War vet. I am sure he is a great guy but we don't need anymore candidates.

Our Field:
Joe Biden rolled out a climate change plan much of it may be plagiarized.

Pete Buttigieg said he wants to depoliticize the Supreme Court by expanding it to 15 judges, 5 Dems, 5 Reps and 5 chosen by a bi-partisan group. He is having difficulty on the home front with a police shooting in South Bend. His honesty about it, during the debate, was refreshing.

Julian Castro announced a policy on policing. He wants federal oversight, standards and demilitarization. He held a town hall on Fox News. He says he supports a Marshall Plan to address problems in Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador.

Bernie Sanders wrote an Op Ed in the New York Times about his financial struggles and income inequality. He announced a bill in the Senate that would cancel all student loan debt. This would really work for me if it were retroactive.

Cory Booker released his housing plan that includes tax breaks for renters.

Steve Bullock wrote an Op Ed for the Des Moines Register about defeating Citizens United.

Eric Swalwell appeared on The View. He released his gun control plan.

Elizabeth Warren introduced her Green Energy Economy Plan. She appeared on The Ezra Klein Show podcast. She also announced another plan, this one to eliminate private prisons. 

Andrew Yang was on Real Time with Bill Maher and the Late Show with Stephen Colbert.

Amy Klobuchar was on Face the Nation. She has stated that she plans to give mental health a top priority. 

John Delaney was on The View. It is too bad he is not polling higher. I think he would make a fine President. He is the only candidate to admit that he supports the Trans Pacific Partnership. 

Kamala Harris released an immigration plan. She was on Face the Nation.

John Hickenlooper released his climate change plan. He supports the Green New Deal but not the job guarantee component. He also wants to give all people who are here illegally, a 10 year visa.

Tim Ryan was on the Daily Show with Trevor Noah and Morning Joe.

Michael Bennet was profiled by Yahoo! Finance focusing on his health care plan. He also introduced (along with some other Senators) the Hunger-Free Summer for Kids Act of 2019 which attempts flexibility in providing for hungry children.

Tulsi Gabbard was on Real Time with Bill Maher. She had made it clear, ending wasteful wars is her top priority. She is a combat veteran and brings this experience to the job.

Jay Inslee announced his fourth climate change plan, the Freedom from Fossil Fuels Plan. 

Power Rankings:

We have 25 candidates. If I had to rank the Democrats in order of my personal preference, I would do so in the following manner: 

Warren

Biden

Buttigieg

Booker

Sanders

Inslee

Klobuchar

Swalwell

Harris

Delaney

Hickenlooper

Castro

O'Rourke

Gabbard

de Blasio

Ryan

Bennet

Bullock

Moulton

Messam

Yang

Sestak

(I probably won't vote if the people below get the nomination)

Gillibrand

Gravel

Williamson

I expect this to change.