Friday, December 6, 2019

Hindsignt 2020: December 2019 #MoscowMitchIsNextToGo

Quid pro quo (or "this for that") is common in politics. The swapping of favors is how the system works. If you vote for a bill that helps my state (this), I will vote for a bill that helps yours (that). The problem with the Trump Ukraine situation, the "that" is a political favor urging a foreign power to get involved in our Federal elections. There is some truth to the statement that this is not a "quid pro quo" because these swaps usually are not lined with a threat. To threaten to withdraw aid to Ukraine for a political favor is not only unethical and an impeachable offense, but it is a huge change in American policy in how we deal with security in Europe. For seventy years, since World War II, security in Europe has been maintained by the nations involved following certain rules of behavior. When Russia invaded the Ukraine is 2014, those rules were broken. Our sanctions against Russia and aid to Ukraine were just, reasonable and necessary. When Trump plays political games with these factors, he is playing with fire and a good argument could be made that he is committing treason. He consistently shits on our allies while throwing bones to tyrants around the world.

He undoubtedly will be impeached in the House, but thanks to Moscow Mitch and the rest of Trump's lapdog GOP Senators, it will not go far in the Senate and Trump will remain in office. We'll be lucky if we even get a trial. It is possible that Moscow Mitch will let the inquiry in the Senate take a lot of time to interfere with the election since several of the Democratic candidates are Senators. The problem with Trump isn't just him but the system that produced him and his political party. They need to be replaced with reasonable people who respect the rule of law, especially Mitch McConnell.  This is why we need not only a candidate that can win but one who positively impact down ballot candidates. We don't need another Hillary Clinton who inspired no one and who convince many that the Democrats are as bad as the Republicans.

The more people see Biden, the less support he gets. It seems that people like the idea of Biden, but not Biden in person. He has high name recognition, but after they get to know him, they are unimpressed. Buttigieg on the other hand is growing in popularity the more people are exposed to him. In the latest polls, he is ahead in Iowa. Senator Warren said something that I found thought provoking. I am paraphrasing, she said that the Republicans are going to oppose whatever we come up with, so we might as well aim high. This is a really good point.  She is clearly the smartest person running but I am concerned, as I have stated in prior posts, that she is too extreme for the mainstream Democrat. I am not only concerned about her support in the general election, but how she would affect the rest of the electorate. Will she help get more Democrats elected or less?  Will the moderate Democrats not show up or vote Republican as a moderating force? Regardless of how much I like Sanders and Warren, it makes me still want to pull to the center and Biden is not the answer.

Voting begins in February. Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina will be telling, but Super Tuesday is where kill shots are going to take place.

Reflections on the Impeachment Inquiry Hearings:
In November we had the impeachment inquiry hearings. Many Americans actually thought these were the actual impeachment hearings. They weren't. After they were done, a report was produced by the Intelligence Committee. The actual Impeachment Hearings started this week.

I have little patience for anyone that states that he doesn't deserve impeachment. We has violated the emoluments clause, he has obstructed justice, he has intimidated witnesses, he is guilty of using the presidency for personal gain, bribery and treason. Impeachment is the only course of action to deal with a President like this. We cannot take legal actions because the Justice Department reports to him. Not impeaching him, means that we are inviting future presidents to do the same as him. If you are living in state with a Senator that will not impeach, I surely hope you are on the phone with their office right now expressing your outrage.

The actual hearings are political theater for news junkies like me. The panelists aren't supposed to have an opinion in the inquiry and are only supposed to be inquiring into the truth. yet everyone Representative doing the questioning already seems to have decided where they stand. The two party lawyers, Daniel Goldman (D) and Stephen Castor (R) seem to be the only people who adhere to this. Both of them are quite impressive.

Throughout the hearings, there is a reference to a "drug deal." This a metaphor. There are no drugs involved here. It is in reference to a comment that John Bolton made that was quoted heavily: "I am not part of whatever drug deal Sondland and Mulvaney are cooking up." So if you tuned in late, you might think there are drugs involved. No such thing. Only geeks like me that watched it from start to finish may have noticed this.

No one is paying attention. Naively, I keep hoping for an upsurge in Republican Senators standing up to oust this guy. No such luck. We all know how this is going to end. He'll have to remove him at the ballots. There is no political courage in the Republican party.

The Debate:
There was another debate in November. Nothing of any interest happened as far as I can see. Andrew Yang is polling 5th and he only got six minutes which doesn't seem right. It is not really worth watching but I included it anyway in case you are interested.


Dropping Out:
Tim Ryan dropped out of the race to run in Ohio's 13th congressional district. He endorsed Joe Biden for President.
Wayne Messam dropped out of the race. He barely left his home state of Florida. I'm not sure why he even tried.
Steve Bullock dropped out of the race. He never went over 1% in the polls and failed to raise enough money to continue.
Mark Sanford withdrew himself from the Republican primary.
Kamala Harris dropped out and this is big news. She is the first major candidate to drop out. She had a surge after the first debate and then she got a lot of media coverage. With more attention comes more scrutiny and she did not handle it well.  She lost a lot of volunteers and donors.  It is odd that she went this far and drops out before Super Tuesday (which includes her home state of California).

Entering the Race:
Deval Patrick - He is from the South Side of Chicago, he is the ex-governor of Massachusetts and now employed by Bain Capital. He is a great speaker like his close friend President Obama.
Mike Bloomberg - The stop and frisk guy. He is ex-mayor of New York City. He plans on skipping campaigning in the early states and concentrating on Super Tuesday states.

What this race does not need is two more millionaires to jump in late. They add nothing new to the race.  I thank them for their interest but I think I will ignore them for now.

Our Field:
Cory Booker was on the Daily Show.


Joe Sestak was on an episode of Shooting the Shit.

Elizabeth Warren released a veterans plan

Joe Biden attended a CNN town hall. He released an infrastructure plan



Pete Buttigieg released his plan for veterans and a mega plan for affordable housing, child care and college education costs.

Bernie Sanders released his plan for veterans and his immigration plan. He was interviewed on one of my favorite podcasts, The New York Times' The Daily. It makes me love him all over again.

Andrew Yang released his technology plan. He appeared on Jimmy Kimmel Live.He is wearing his MATH pin as usually. He says it stands for Make America Think Harder. I like this guy.



Tom Steyer released a healthcare plan and an affordable housing plan.

Power Rankings:
I count 15 candidates. I am going with Senator Amy Klobuchar this month. She is Elizabeth-Warren-lite. She has the right politics but more moderate. I find her very smart, witty and she has an impressive history. Much more impressive than Pete Buttigieg whom I like, but lets face it, he is the mayor of a tiny city. Is he ready for the big stage? I don't know. 

If I had to rank the Democrats in order of my personal preference, I would do so in the following manner: 

Klobuchar
Buttigieg
Warren
Sanders
Biden
Booker
Yang
Gabbard
Delaney
Castro
Sestak
Patrick
Bloomberg
(I probably won't vote if the people below get the nomination)
Steyers
Williamson

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