Hindsight 2020: February 2020

As I write this, the caucuses in Iowa are happening. I am expecting Bernie to win in a very big way, but I could be proved wrong by the time I publish this. Caucuses work differently than primaries. In a primary people just vote, show up and leave. But a caucus can be an all-day affair. You show up for your candidate, you get counted. If your candidate doesn't get at least 50%, you can't caucus for that candidate anymore and have to choose someone else. If your second choice candidate is still in it, you can caucus for him/her. When Iowans were polled, Bernie was always on top when it came to people's second choice. So not only is he going to pick up his fanatical voter base, he is going to get many of Klobuchar's supporters when she doesn't get 15%, Mayor Pete's supporters etc. etc. So Bernie could come out of this very strong.

It seems to me that Bernie is going to win the nomination. If anyone challenges him, it will not be Warren or Biden, but Bloomberg. Bernie is rising in the polls, he has the most resources, he is the most popular second choice of voters and very few of his opponents are attacking him. Can a candidate win the Democratic nomination while ignoring the moderates? He has a very passionate group of supporters and they are young. The bigger question is can Bernie beat Trump? The moderates may not show up. Will their hate of Trump be motivation enough that they will vote for a socialist? I am full of questions.

Whatever happens, they need to stop calling each other liars. One of Democrats' big assets is that their opponent is a huge liar. If two of our top candidates are also liars ... this will only feed apathy. The idea that politicians are all liars is already prevalent. They are not helping.

The impeachment trial is going to end with an acquittal. This is going to happen very soon as well. With the President and now the Senate Republicans blocking testimonies of key witnesses, how else could it end? Why are they blocking the witnesses ... Bolton etc? Trump is guilty as shit. What else could be going on? It is the same situation with his tax returns. If he had nothing to hide, he'd be eager to show his innocence.

What is on the ballot this year? Not just the president, but the presidency itself. If he is re-elected, this is proof of concept. It was not a blip or a mistake of the Electoral Congress. It will be proof that his form of demagoguery works and a slew of new Trump-like minions will be unleashed on us. You think we are in madness now, just wait.Trump will have changed the Presidency, but not in a good way. Not at all.

Busy as Jurors at Impeachment Trial: Senators Bennet, Warren, Sanders and Klobuchar are all stuck in Washington. They all have surrogates on the road for them in NH and IA along with their spouses.

Dropping Out:
Williamson - She teleported away to another realm where you can actually get some political experience and not bother us again until she does. She is endorsing Andrew Yang.

Booker - When Booker originally announced, I thought he was going to be a front runner. Once again, I was way off. He didn't run a great campaign, constantly talking about his neighborhood. Most voter's neighborhoods look nothing like his neighborhood, especially in Iowa and New Hampshire. Perhaps if more diverse states like Nevada and South Carolina were first in the nation to vote, Booker might be on top. I like the idea of states rotating their primary dates.

Delaney:- Former Congressman and businessman John Delaney dropped out of the race just a few days before the Iowa caucus. Why does someone go through all this and drop out before a single vote is cast?  Boggles the mind!

Our Field:
Michael Bennet released his Real Deal, his plan for universal pre-K, health care and climate change. He also proposed a new tax bracket. He wants to also make all new buildings carbon neutral by 2025.

Andrew Yang launched a write-in campaign to appear on the Ohio ballot.

Bernie Sanders was interviewed on PBS Newshour.

Elizabeth Warren created a plan to make it easier for consumers to declare bankruptcy. She also released an infection disease plan and a plan to combat disinformation.

Since Michael Bloomberg has entered the race, the price of television ads has risen 20%. This is making it more difficult for other, non-millionaire, candidates to buy television ads. The Superbowl will have two candidates advertising, Bloomberg and Trump. He is also the only primary candidate to visit all 14 Super Tuesday states. He's all in on Super Tuesday.

Power Rankings:

I count 10 candidates. I am still sticking with Amy. She has the political chops and the experience to not only win but to be an excellent president. 

I have moved Bloomberg up even more this month because he is on a roll and could be the candidate.  We'll have to see how he does on Super Tuesday.  

Klobuchar

Sanders

Bloomberg

Warren

Buttigieg

Biden

Bennet

Patrick

(I probably won't vote if the people below get the nomination)

Gabbard

Steyers