Hindsight 2020: The Red Mirage

In 2016 support for Trump (polling data) was a 6% higher when the poll was taken on-line than when the poll was taken in person. This is a largest difference for any candidate in the short history of online polling. This suggests people may be a little embarrassed to admit that they support the guy. The privacy of the voting booth is very different than a poll where you have to admit to someone whom you support. This has changed in 2020. Perhaps it is because he has been president for four years or perhaps it was because his opponent was a woman in 2016. Online support is roughly equal to phone support in 2020. 

The Democrats need a slaughter in 2020, nothing but a complete mandate. If the election is close, you have to wonder if he will concede. If he refuses to leave, what do we do then? This fucker may not even concede if he is trounced. As it looks right now, it looks like Biden will win in a landslide, but the election is still a month away.  Yes, I do remember how off polling was off in 2016, but Biden is so far ahead that even if our polling is as bad as they were in 2016, Biden would win all but one battleground state and Trump would win a squeaker in North Carolina. I started writing this before Trump's horrendous debate performance/behavior and before his COVID diagnosis. Biden has jumped even higher in the polls since. Also, Trump is polling lower than any incumbent President in the history of polling. 

Election night will be quite different this year. We won't have all the results in for a while. We are still in the midst of a pandemic so many people, including me, will be voting via mail/absentee ballots. I have the day off so I was planning to vote in person, but after hearing a plea from our town clerk to stay home, I am complying. I will be hand delivering my ballot and hope you do as well.  I trust the post office, but they may be overwhelmed. I am also abstaining from buying anything online until after the election as well. Whatever we can do, we should, to help this election be legit. 

Traditionally, I watch the results roll in on election night and go to bed waiting for history to unfold. In 2000, I remember falling asleep pleased that my candidate, Al Gore, had won Florida and was probably going to be our next President. Two decades and two towers later, I am not so naive.  With so many mail ballots being cast, we may not know even a week later. Let this serve as a reminder, to ignore speculations of pundits and candidate on election night.  Many states have already started counting the ballots, but some can't. Some states can't start counting the ballots until the day of or the day before Election Day.  Since these are dictated by law, they can't simply change this.  This is particularly concerning because some of the larger swing states, like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, are among these states.  This is particularly an issue in Wisconsin, which as of right now, is on lockdown due to a COVID outbreak. I have no doubt, there is going to be a ton of problems. It doesn't help that Trump is recruiting his "Trump army" to intimidate everyone involved. 

We don't know what percentage of America will vote by mail, but do know that 75% of us do have the capability, the highest ever. One third of the American voter-base claim they intend to vote by mail and Biden voters are twice as likely to vote by mail than Trump.  This is probably because Trump keeps claiming how corrupt the process is. Since there is zero evidence of this, this shouldn't bother anyone. He votes by mail himself, so it is obvious this is just typical Trump bullshit. 

Since more Democrats are voting by mail, what we will experience on election night will be skewed toward the Republican especially in these states that don't start count until Election Day. This is what people are calling the Red Mirage. Keep this in mind when you see the result. 

Be patient. Brace yourself, we're in for a wild ride!