Hindsight 2020: August 2019 edition

We are living in an era of malevolence tempered by incompetence. In eight years of Obama's presidency, one cabinet member resigned due to a scandal. In three years of the Trump's presidency, we have had seven already. Rick Perry apparently has plans to leave soon as well. Trump has had more turn over in his cabinet than the last four president's first terms combined. Anyone of Trump's scandals would have devastated other presidents, yet his supporters don't care. Ripping off tax payers for personal gain apparently doesn't bother them. I wonder what does. We haven't found out yet.

While I believe Biden will get the nomination, I am not looking forward to a debate between these two men. Neither one of them are fast on their feet and it would be an embarrassment to all Americans. Both Warren and Harris would eviscerate Trump in a debate. I would love to see this. Mayor Pete would do well but he'd be more polite about it.

Of the 25 candidates in our field, we have eight candidates whose last public office was/is a Senator and seven Representatives. That is more than half coming from Congress and from recent years, we have not seen a lot of success of Congress people running for President (Obama being the exception). We also have three Governors, three Mayors, three private citizens, one Vice President and one ex-cabinet member (who was once a Mayor). Since nominating conventions were adopted in the 1832 election, major parties have nominated 21 candidates who most recently served as a governor, 15 who most recently served in a Senate, six from the House of Representatives, 27 who were incumbent presidents and eight vice presidents. Like Castro, only five candidates most recently served in the Cabinet. Four were ambassadors, one was a state judge, one Supreme Court Justice and seven with no prior political experience. Of the 21 governors nominated, only ten won the presidential election. The state with the most governors who won a presidential nomination was New York with seven. The only New York governors to win election as president were Democrats, Grover Cleveland (1884) and FDR (1932).  Of the 21 candidates who had most recently served in Congress (15 in the Senate and six in the House), a third of them (seven), won election as president. The success rate is the same for members of both chambers; five out of 15 Senators and two out of six Representatives were successful in presidential races. Only two of the last five VPs have won the presidency but unlike Biden, they ran immediately after their president last office. Biden might have won if he ran in 2016.

Our field is diverse in many other ways. We have six women, one gay man, several black candidates and two from Asian descent. They range from age 37 to 77. We have mostly Protestants and Catholics in our field but we also have a Jewish and a Hindi candidate. The field is still mostly white men, but they are still the most diverse field ever, perhaps anywhere. I am still waiting for my atheist candidate.

The most recent debate has been discussed ad nauseam, so I won't spend a lot of time of it. The only thing I want to point out is that the formats don't bode well for some candidates. Beto O'Rourke is a great candidate, but like Obama, he does well when he has a lot of time to speak. He is a great orator. You have to wonder how Obama would have fared in these formats with so many candidates on the stage. I hope no one is rejecting O'Rourke purely on this debate performance. These are not really debates anyway. They seem more like sound byte opportunities than anything else.

Announcing:
Tom Steyers, another billionaire is trying to buy his way into the presidency. He is a hedge fund manager from NYC and philanthropic support of many leftist causes. I think it is great that he wants to run for public office. He should start with governor or mayor, not with president. I am not going to take him seriously.

Our Field:
Michael Bennet appeared on Pod Save America and The View. He was also on  Slate's The Gist, one of my favorite Podcasts.  No weekday morning is complete without Mike Pesca.

Tim Ryan released his education plan that concentrated on getting young children ready for school. He also introduced a plan to stimulate manufacturing.

Cory Booker released his immigration plan and a long term care policy that would expand Medicaid. He is also the only candidate to have visited Comic Con in San Diego, trying very hard to get the geek vote.  He was on Late Night with Seth Meyers. He wrote an Op Ed for CNN about agri-business and anti-trust law.

Steve Bullock was interviewed on Bloomberg news. He also wrote an Op Ed in the Sioux City Journal on Social Security and Medicare.

Pete Buttigieg released a nation service plan. He is polling very low with voters of color. He's got a problem there. He explained his plan for racial equity on NPR, the radio network mostly listened to by white people. He also appeared on Recode Decode. He released a plan for workers.

Julian Castro appeared on the Rachel Maddow Show and on Democracy Now.

Tulsi Gabbard seems to be campaigning for VP. She appeared on CBS News. 

Andrew Yang proposes an act to save our dying malls with over 200 of them expected to go under in the next three years. He appeared on The Daily Show.

Elizabeth Warren reintroduced the Climate Risk Disclosure Act, introduced an act that would assist low income college student buy food and a student load relief act.   She also released her trade plan. Yes, there will still be trade in a Warren administration. 

Kamala Harris proposed spending $1 billion to end the rape kit backlog nationwide. She also introduced a program to reduce the cost of prescription drugs and released her Medicare For All Plan.

Joe Biden released his health care plan that builds on the ACA and his plan for to assist rural America. 

Amy Klubuchar says that appointing judges will be a top priority for her which is really important to me and it should be for you as well.  She released a plan for housing. 

Seth Moulton was on NPR's Here and Now. He also introduce the Automatic Listening and Exploitation Act that would penalize companies that have smart devices that listen without our permission. He wrote an Op Ed for Fortune calling for the impeachment of Trump. 

Beto O'Rourke announced a Social Security policy that would give credits to care givers. He appeared on The View with his wife, Amy.

John Hickenlooper was on WMUR's Conversation with the Candidate. He also wrote an Op Ed on CNN about gun safety and released a plan to increase rural broadband access. 

Joe Sestak wrote an Op Ed about Iran in the Des Moines Register.

Bill de Blasio introduced a plan for a worker's bill of rights. 

Jay Inslee released his plan for workers and unions. 

John Delaney released a plan for mandatory national service. 

Bernie Sanders was on Pod Save America and he really rocked.

Power Rankings:

With Swalwell out and Steyers in we still have 25 candidates. If I had to rank the Democrats in order of my personal preference, I would do so in the following manner: 

Biden

Warren

Buttigieg

Booker

Sanders

Inslee

Hickenlooper

Klobuchar

Harris

Castro

O'Rourke

Gabbard

Bennet

Delaney

de Blasio

Ryan

Bullock

Yang

Moulton

Messam

Sestak

(I probably won't vote if the people below get the nomination)

Steyers

Gillibrand

Gravel

Williamson

I expect this to change.